1. Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts - Kansas City rested most of their A-team and still almost beat the San Diego Chargers. I think that says more about San Diego than anything else. Of course, the B-team doesn't get a chance to play much so they were gunning hard. Indianapolis beat Kansas City at Arrowhead just a couple weeks ago (Dec 22) so Indy should be able to take care of the Chiefs without too much fuss right? Not necessarily. The key to this game will be whether or not the Chiefs get pressure on Andrew Luck. If they can get to him, the Colts will have a hard time scoring. If not, even the new and improved KC offense won't be enough to keep up with the Colts. I think the Chiefs have something to prove and Andy Ried's bad luck in the playoffs usually only hits in the championship game. I'm giving the edge to Kansas City in this one.
2. New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles - The Saints are dynamite at home. This game is not at home. The Eagles are hot and should be jazzed over their emotional win over Dallas. The Saints have been downright abysmal when they are away and outdoors. I think Drew Breeze and company will be able to take advantage of the Eagles early as they will likely be a little too amped up for the start of the game, but the Eagles will come back and send the Saints back to New Orleans for the rest of the season.
3. San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - When you look at this on paper, this game should not be close. San Diego needed overtime and a couple of questionable calls to even get into the playoffs. Cincinnati is perfect at home this year and they handled the Chargers fairly well when they played in San Diego just after Thanksgiving. Yet, I am not sold on the Bengals ability to close the deal. Andy Dalton gets very jittery in spotlight games while Philip Rivers has been around for a long time and will not be bothered much by the crowds. I think the Bengals will win, but the coaches should give the Chargers a heavy diet of the running game to start before opening up the passing game. If they can get a rushing touchdown or two and bleed the clock to make Philip Rivers get pass happy, things will go a lot smoother over the course of the game.
4. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - I'm have a hard time getting a bead on this game. I've seen a lot of San Francisco games this season and they have been very up and down. Green Bay on the other hand is a very good team with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. The math says to go with Niners, but my gut says to go with the Packers. I think the key to this game is going to be whether Green Bay can play any kind of defense. Colin Kaepernick can be erratic when he throws too much and the Niners are better when they run the ball more. I'm rating this one as a complete toss-up but I'm going to give Green Bay a very tiny edge. Rodgers will attack the wounded Niner's secondary and that will open things up for Eddie Lacy. If Green Bay gets any kind of a lead, Kaepernick might take one too many chances. I also question San Francisco's ability to fully function in the cold wind as Green Bay does. Still, this is definitely the one I'm least confident on.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Steelers Out
Let's be honest. Relying on the Kansas City scrubs to beat San Diego is not a reliable way of making the playoffs. Steelers fans can hate on Ryan Succop all they want, but this is something tangible to the Steelers that cost them the playoffs just as much:
Monday, December 23, 2013
To Week 17
It's probably been quite a while since we've had so much unsettled going into the final week of the season. Yes, there's always been one or two games that settle things, but it seems that just about nothing is secure at the moment.
AFC
The Division winners are all set as is the #5 seed (Kansas City). But seeding is still up in the air and there is going to be a rumpus for the #6 spot.
1. Denver has won the West and secured at least a first-round bye. But they need to either win their final game at Oakland, or have the Patriots lose to secure the overall #1 seed.
2. New England has won the East but needs Denver to lose to take home-field. What's more, should they somehow lose at home to Buffalo and Cincinnati wins against the Ravens, the Patriots would fall into the #3 seed as the Bengals have the tie-breaker in a head-to-head win. That seems unlikely, but it is possible.
3. The Bengals have won the North and close out against the Ravens. If they win and New England loses, they jump to the #2 seed. If they lose and Indianapolis wins, they fall to the #4 seed and a date with Kansas City. So a win preserves the #3 seed and kicks the Ravens out of the playoffs, which seems like motivation enough to me to try to win.
4. Indianapolis has won the South and closes out against the Jaguars at home. If they win and the Bengals lose, the Colts will be elevated to the #3 seed but they cannot do any better than that. Knowing that, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Colts start sitting some of their starters in the second half, no matter what the state of the game.
5. Kansas City is locked into the #5 seed. They finish at San Diego.
6. This is where things get real interesting. Miami, Baltimore, and San Diego are all tied at 8-7. Miami has the tie-breaker as they have the best conference record of the three. Baltimore follows and San Diego rounds it out. So, if Miami wins their final game against the Jets, they are in. If Miami loses and Baltimore wins, Baltimore gets in. If both lose and San Diego wins, they get in. If all three lose and Pittsburgh wins their final game against Cleveland, they actually vault over the lot and grab the #6 seed. That seems unlikely to me. Of the three Miami certainly can win, although games with the Jets have been known to be very odd. After that, I'd actually favor San Diego as I expect the Chiefs to be sitting a number of their better players, knowing they will be on the road and playing that first round of the playoffs.
So, that gives us four teams fighting for one spot. The rest is just the juggle of seeding.
NFC
The NFC actually still has not settled any of it's division winners yet, although two are pretty close to being settled.
1. Seattle will clinch automatically if San Francisco loses tonight (not likely against Atlanta), otherwise they'll have to win against the Rams next week, which would win the division and secure home-field. On the off chance they do lose, the 49ers could vault over them to take the division if they win tonight against Atlanta and next week against Arizona.
2. The Carolina Panthers locked a playoff spot win their win against New Orleans yesterday. If they win against Atlanta next week, they secure the division and the #2 seed. Seattle has the tie-breaker so Carolina can only secure home-field if San Francisco vaults up to win the West. Should Carolina lose to Atlanta, New Orleans could sneak back in and the Panthers would fall to either the #5 or #6 seed.
3. Philadelphia destroyed the Bears last night and set itself in the #3 spot for the moment. But the game against Dallas (which has been moved to be the Sunday Night game) will decide who wins the East. Win and you're in. Lose and you stay home. Dallas has a better record against the NFC than the Bears so whoever wins this game will take the #3 seed.
4. Detroit's collapse opened things up and now it's a head-to-head between Chicago and Green Bay to decide the North and the #4 seed. Like the East, win and you're in, lose and you go home. Chicago could settle for a tie as well.
5. Now things get murky. San Francisco holds this spot at the moment and assuming they win against Atlanta, will continue to hold it. In fact, if they win tonight, the 49ers secure a playoff spot. They actually could have things go so that they could the #1 overall seed, but that would require them to win out and have both Seattle and Carolina lose and that seems unlikely. But, if Seattle loses next week and San Francisco wins, they could take the division and Seattle would fall to this spot.
6. New Orleans had a first-round bye in their hand and now they face the possibility of missing the playoffs. If New Orleans wins their final game against Tampa Bay, they're in. If they lose, they open the door for the Arizona Cardinals. If the Cardinals lose their last game to San Francisco, the Saints would also get in.
So, there are technically three teams alive in the NFC hunt, but two of them are head-to-head division races and only one (Cardinals) that is hoping for outside help.
Personally, I don't expect much variance as most of the final games favor the team that is in the spot it is now. My expectation:
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
2. New England Patriots
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins (if not the Fish, then the Bolts)
NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Chicago Bears (unless Aaron Rodgers is able to come back)
5. San Francisco 49er's
6. New Orleans Saints
As in previous years, I'll make my various playoff predictions. I'm still holding to a Seahawks-Broncos Superbowl, but I must admit, I'm starting to think that the Panthers have a chance at changing that. Despite their flaws, I'll need to see Denver go down before I go against them in the playoffs (or if Manning is taken out by the Raiders).
AFC
The Division winners are all set as is the #5 seed (Kansas City). But seeding is still up in the air and there is going to be a rumpus for the #6 spot.
1. Denver has won the West and secured at least a first-round bye. But they need to either win their final game at Oakland, or have the Patriots lose to secure the overall #1 seed.
2. New England has won the East but needs Denver to lose to take home-field. What's more, should they somehow lose at home to Buffalo and Cincinnati wins against the Ravens, the Patriots would fall into the #3 seed as the Bengals have the tie-breaker in a head-to-head win. That seems unlikely, but it is possible.
3. The Bengals have won the North and close out against the Ravens. If they win and New England loses, they jump to the #2 seed. If they lose and Indianapolis wins, they fall to the #4 seed and a date with Kansas City. So a win preserves the #3 seed and kicks the Ravens out of the playoffs, which seems like motivation enough to me to try to win.
4. Indianapolis has won the South and closes out against the Jaguars at home. If they win and the Bengals lose, the Colts will be elevated to the #3 seed but they cannot do any better than that. Knowing that, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Colts start sitting some of their starters in the second half, no matter what the state of the game.
5. Kansas City is locked into the #5 seed. They finish at San Diego.
6. This is where things get real interesting. Miami, Baltimore, and San Diego are all tied at 8-7. Miami has the tie-breaker as they have the best conference record of the three. Baltimore follows and San Diego rounds it out. So, if Miami wins their final game against the Jets, they are in. If Miami loses and Baltimore wins, Baltimore gets in. If both lose and San Diego wins, they get in. If all three lose and Pittsburgh wins their final game against Cleveland, they actually vault over the lot and grab the #6 seed. That seems unlikely to me. Of the three Miami certainly can win, although games with the Jets have been known to be very odd. After that, I'd actually favor San Diego as I expect the Chiefs to be sitting a number of their better players, knowing they will be on the road and playing that first round of the playoffs.
So, that gives us four teams fighting for one spot. The rest is just the juggle of seeding.
NFC
The NFC actually still has not settled any of it's division winners yet, although two are pretty close to being settled.
1. Seattle will clinch automatically if San Francisco loses tonight (not likely against Atlanta), otherwise they'll have to win against the Rams next week, which would win the division and secure home-field. On the off chance they do lose, the 49ers could vault over them to take the division if they win tonight against Atlanta and next week against Arizona.
2. The Carolina Panthers locked a playoff spot win their win against New Orleans yesterday. If they win against Atlanta next week, they secure the division and the #2 seed. Seattle has the tie-breaker so Carolina can only secure home-field if San Francisco vaults up to win the West. Should Carolina lose to Atlanta, New Orleans could sneak back in and the Panthers would fall to either the #5 or #6 seed.
3. Philadelphia destroyed the Bears last night and set itself in the #3 spot for the moment. But the game against Dallas (which has been moved to be the Sunday Night game) will decide who wins the East. Win and you're in. Lose and you stay home. Dallas has a better record against the NFC than the Bears so whoever wins this game will take the #3 seed.
4. Detroit's collapse opened things up and now it's a head-to-head between Chicago and Green Bay to decide the North and the #4 seed. Like the East, win and you're in, lose and you go home. Chicago could settle for a tie as well.
5. Now things get murky. San Francisco holds this spot at the moment and assuming they win against Atlanta, will continue to hold it. In fact, if they win tonight, the 49ers secure a playoff spot. They actually could have things go so that they could the #1 overall seed, but that would require them to win out and have both Seattle and Carolina lose and that seems unlikely. But, if Seattle loses next week and San Francisco wins, they could take the division and Seattle would fall to this spot.
6. New Orleans had a first-round bye in their hand and now they face the possibility of missing the playoffs. If New Orleans wins their final game against Tampa Bay, they're in. If they lose, they open the door for the Arizona Cardinals. If the Cardinals lose their last game to San Francisco, the Saints would also get in.
So, there are technically three teams alive in the NFC hunt, but two of them are head-to-head division races and only one (Cardinals) that is hoping for outside help.
Personally, I don't expect much variance as most of the final games favor the team that is in the spot it is now. My expectation:
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
2. New England Patriots
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins (if not the Fish, then the Bolts)
NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Chicago Bears (unless Aaron Rodgers is able to come back)
5. San Francisco 49er's
6. New Orleans Saints
As in previous years, I'll make my various playoff predictions. I'm still holding to a Seahawks-Broncos Superbowl, but I must admit, I'm starting to think that the Panthers have a chance at changing that. Despite their flaws, I'll need to see Denver go down before I go against them in the playoffs (or if Manning is taken out by the Raiders).
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Christie Anime
Hercule Poirot, Miss Marple, and anime. A very nice combination. The extra character of Maybelle is a little annoying in the way that anime characters can be, but this is still quite well done. Hastings should be a bit older though.
Wednesday, December 04, 2013
Football Homestretch
Week 13 is now in the books. Seattle is the only team that has secured a playoff spot, but many of the teams listed will be making the playoffs, it's just a question of what their seeding will be:
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
2. New England Patriots
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have the tie-breaker against the Dolphins via a head-to-head win. Everyone else is sub-500. The Bengals square off against the Colts this weekend and if they win, they will move into #3 spot and have tie-breakers against the Colts and Patriots. So there is an off chance they could seize the #2 spot if they finish with the same record as the Pats. Likewise, the Pats have the head-to-head against Denver so the Broncos need to maintain a game lead if they want to keep home field. The Chiefs are essentially locked into the #5 spot.
NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Detroit Lions
5. Carolina Panthers
6. San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks are firmly in control of the #1 spot having beaten the Saints last week. Of course, the Saints have to square off against the Panthers twice (whom the Seahawks also beat) so the Panthers could vault up to win the division and the #2 seed. Dallas and Detroit could actually still lose their divisions as the Eagles are tied with the Cowboys and the Packers and Bears are also not too far back of the Lions. Even the 49ers could have trouble as the Arizona Cardinals are only a game back of them for the last spot.
Much is still to be settled in the final four weeks.
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
2. New England Patriots
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have the tie-breaker against the Dolphins via a head-to-head win. Everyone else is sub-500. The Bengals square off against the Colts this weekend and if they win, they will move into #3 spot and have tie-breakers against the Colts and Patriots. So there is an off chance they could seize the #2 spot if they finish with the same record as the Pats. Likewise, the Pats have the head-to-head against Denver so the Broncos need to maintain a game lead if they want to keep home field. The Chiefs are essentially locked into the #5 spot.
NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Detroit Lions
5. Carolina Panthers
6. San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks are firmly in control of the #1 spot having beaten the Saints last week. Of course, the Saints have to square off against the Panthers twice (whom the Seahawks also beat) so the Panthers could vault up to win the division and the #2 seed. Dallas and Detroit could actually still lose their divisions as the Eagles are tied with the Cowboys and the Packers and Bears are also not too far back of the Lions. Even the 49ers could have trouble as the Arizona Cardinals are only a game back of them for the last spot.
Much is still to be settled in the final four weeks.
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