Although I hadn't posted about it, I think I did pretty well in the post-season picks this year. I got all four games right in the first week. I went 2 of 4 in the second week (I picked Denver, New England, San Francisco, and Seattle) and then I got both games right this week.
I was a lot less sold on Baltimore, but after they defeated Denver, a friend of mine told me that that he thought that this Ravens team looks an awful lot like the Steelers team that won Super Bowl XL back in 2006. New England wasn't that good when one looked at them closely and they're much vaunted defense was about as bad as I expected. Baltimore would have won by even more if their recievers had figured out how to catch the ball before the second half. There were a number of dropped passes that the defense had nothing to do with.
On the NFC side, I had a feeling about the 49ers but that feeling was tested early when the Falcons jumped up 17-0. Then you could see the tide turning, much like the Seattle game. The only question was whether or not San Francisco was going to shoot themselves in the foot before they managed to take the lead. But they did and they managed to bleed the Falcons down at the end.
So who has the advantage in the Super Bowl? Going with the '05 Steelers parallel, I would say Baltimore. I think their defense is more consistent (even if it is old) and I think they will hit harder than the 49ers, who still seem like a bit of a finese team (although not as much as the Falcons). I also trust the Baltimore offense and it's deep threat better than I do the scrambling QB for the 49ers.
Monday, January 21, 2013
Friday, January 18, 2013
The Riddle of Power
A king, a priest, and a wealthy man are in a room together. Also in the room is a poor, common man with a sword. Each man demands that the commoner kill the other two. The king promises to elevate the man to that of a knight with his own lands and estate. The priest promises that the man will have earned favor with God and his place in paradise will be assured. The wealthy man offers half of his fortune for the man to do with as he pleases.
Who does the common man obey and who dies?
This is a variation on a riddle posed by the spymaster Varys to the newly appointed Hand of the King, Tyrion Lannister, in A Clash of Kings. The riddle itself is most interesting for several reasons, not the least of which is that it has no answer. Obviously the common man is going to respond to whichever aspect of power is most attractive to himself, whether that be governmental, spiritual, or monetary.
The riddle is also interesting in how it shows that power itself is an illusion. The three men in question all held things that defined power, but the true power of life and death was held by the man with the sword. Only by the exise of this power, would the power of the survivor be able to manifest itself to the benefit of the common man with the sword. However, the powers that the three men have are real to some degree because the common man can't take what was offered from the two dead men. Likewise, he earns nothing for his troubles if he kills all three men with his absolute power of life and death. This gives a partial answer to the follow up question that if the man with the sword has all the power, why to the men with swords follow the leaders and not the other way around?
I have no real point to all of this, only to note the interesting nature of power and the illusary pursuit of it. I like riddles and I like philosphical questions as well.
Who does the common man obey and who dies?
This is a variation on a riddle posed by the spymaster Varys to the newly appointed Hand of the King, Tyrion Lannister, in A Clash of Kings. The riddle itself is most interesting for several reasons, not the least of which is that it has no answer. Obviously the common man is going to respond to whichever aspect of power is most attractive to himself, whether that be governmental, spiritual, or monetary.
The riddle is also interesting in how it shows that power itself is an illusion. The three men in question all held things that defined power, but the true power of life and death was held by the man with the sword. Only by the exise of this power, would the power of the survivor be able to manifest itself to the benefit of the common man with the sword. However, the powers that the three men have are real to some degree because the common man can't take what was offered from the two dead men. Likewise, he earns nothing for his troubles if he kills all three men with his absolute power of life and death. This gives a partial answer to the follow up question that if the man with the sword has all the power, why to the men with swords follow the leaders and not the other way around?
I have no real point to all of this, only to note the interesting nature of power and the illusary pursuit of it. I like riddles and I like philosphical questions as well.
Tuesday, January 08, 2013
Monday, January 07, 2013
Wednesday, January 02, 2013
NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Round
The NFL Playoffs begin this Saturday and especially as the Bengals have actually gotten in, it seems only natural that we take a quick look at things.
Game 1 - Cincinnati at Houston
This is a rematch of the wild card game last year. The Bengals had a good chance going in but Houston was too strong and prevailed. This year, no one seems to be giving Cincinnati even a fighting chance. This is somewhat understandable as up until the last week of the season, Houston was in line for the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Houston has an okay defense but a very good offense. Cincinnati has a pretty good defense, but their offense is sorely lacking. AJ Green remains the only true wide recieving threat and the running game has struggled all season. Unless the defense goes into hyperdrive and scores at least one touchdown for the Bengals, I would expect Houston to win the game comfortably.
Game 2 - Minnesota at Green Bay
Divisional playoff games are always hard to get a proper bead on. Minnesota beat Green Bay in the last game of the regular season to make the playoffs so they certainly know how to beat them. Minnesota's defense is nothing to sneeze at and any offense that has Adrian Peterson is always a threat. Green Bay may have one of the best offenses in the league but their defense is still pretty terrible. Still, the game will be played in Green Bay and I have a hard time believing that a team as experienced as the Packers will fold under pressure of the first round. The Vikings could do it, but I would still expect Green Bay to emerge victorious.
Game 3 - Indianapolis at Baltimore
This is where the possiblity of upsets start to become more realistic. Baltimore started strong but has been hampered by injuries as the season has gone on. Their once vaunted defense is a shell of it's former glory and the offense has never fully materialized. Conversely, the Indianapolis offense has become stronger against more difficult foes. Their defense is still a bit suspect but that may not matter as much against a weaker offense. If Baltimore has a good chance of avoiding the upset it is the fact that they are the veteran team and this Colts team has enough new parts that they may be caught up in the "happy to be here" moment. I would give the edge to Baltimore but I think Indianapolis has nearly a 50-50 chance of winning the game.
Game 4 - Seattle at Washington
Washington has done very well to win the East and get to this point. They are a good team and are fairly hot at the moment. However, they are going up against what may be the hottest team in football at the moment in Seattle. Seattle and Washington are nearly mirror images of each other with a mobile QB and a run first mentality anchored by a quick, slashing running attack. Washington probably has a slightly better defense but I wouldn't slouch on Seattle's defense. Washington has homefield and RG3 has been amazing in his ability to magic wins from nowhere but they are also going to be somewhat emotionally spent after the game against Dallas to win the division. Seattle has a long ride but they are used to that and have been assured of a playoff spot since the end of Week 16. I think Seattle will keep their momentum going and win against Washington but I think it will take nearly everything they've got to top the Redskins.
Game 1 - Cincinnati at Houston
This is a rematch of the wild card game last year. The Bengals had a good chance going in but Houston was too strong and prevailed. This year, no one seems to be giving Cincinnati even a fighting chance. This is somewhat understandable as up until the last week of the season, Houston was in line for the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Houston has an okay defense but a very good offense. Cincinnati has a pretty good defense, but their offense is sorely lacking. AJ Green remains the only true wide recieving threat and the running game has struggled all season. Unless the defense goes into hyperdrive and scores at least one touchdown for the Bengals, I would expect Houston to win the game comfortably.
Game 2 - Minnesota at Green Bay
Divisional playoff games are always hard to get a proper bead on. Minnesota beat Green Bay in the last game of the regular season to make the playoffs so they certainly know how to beat them. Minnesota's defense is nothing to sneeze at and any offense that has Adrian Peterson is always a threat. Green Bay may have one of the best offenses in the league but their defense is still pretty terrible. Still, the game will be played in Green Bay and I have a hard time believing that a team as experienced as the Packers will fold under pressure of the first round. The Vikings could do it, but I would still expect Green Bay to emerge victorious.
Game 3 - Indianapolis at Baltimore
This is where the possiblity of upsets start to become more realistic. Baltimore started strong but has been hampered by injuries as the season has gone on. Their once vaunted defense is a shell of it's former glory and the offense has never fully materialized. Conversely, the Indianapolis offense has become stronger against more difficult foes. Their defense is still a bit suspect but that may not matter as much against a weaker offense. If Baltimore has a good chance of avoiding the upset it is the fact that they are the veteran team and this Colts team has enough new parts that they may be caught up in the "happy to be here" moment. I would give the edge to Baltimore but I think Indianapolis has nearly a 50-50 chance of winning the game.
Game 4 - Seattle at Washington
Washington has done very well to win the East and get to this point. They are a good team and are fairly hot at the moment. However, they are going up against what may be the hottest team in football at the moment in Seattle. Seattle and Washington are nearly mirror images of each other with a mobile QB and a run first mentality anchored by a quick, slashing running attack. Washington probably has a slightly better defense but I wouldn't slouch on Seattle's defense. Washington has homefield and RG3 has been amazing in his ability to magic wins from nowhere but they are also going to be somewhat emotionally spent after the game against Dallas to win the division. Seattle has a long ride but they are used to that and have been assured of a playoff spot since the end of Week 16. I think Seattle will keep their momentum going and win against Washington but I think it will take nearly everything they've got to top the Redskins.
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