There has not been a Pharaoh ruling Egypt since Augustus Caesar ordered the execution of Ptolemy XV Caesarion in 30 BC; although some might argue that Gamal Abdel Nassar came very close. That seems to have changed with the new constitution ratified by the Egyptian parlament.
In the new constitution Egypt's president, Mohamed Morsi, has been granted sweeping powers that President's Nassar and Mubarak could only have dreamed of. It is not quite to the level of Pharaoh (as I don't believe he has been granted dynastic succession) but the powers are vast and the protesters filling the streets have been chanting against "Pharaoh Morsi" while they attack Muslim Brotherhood sites.
Unlike some of the other Arab Spring sites (such as Syria), I don't believe that the protesters will win if they move to take military action. But a civil war is certainly possible, which will disrupt Egypt and the whole region for quite a while.
Add to this potential civil, the actual civil war in Syria and the UN's recognition of Palestine as a non-observer state yesterday and you have a reciepe for some serious nastiness in the Middle East.
The one aspect that seems to have escaped people is the full implication of what UN recognition of Palestine means. First, it means that the Oslo Accords are officially dissolved. The PLO coucil will now operate as a legislative body and any new treaties will have to be negotiated with it.
Second, and with broader implications, Israel is no longer negotiating with a people group but a declared state. Israel has stated that under international law, they will move to openly annex all territory where Jewish settlements have been established in Judea and Samaria. This is likely to seen as an assault on Palestinian territory (as they claim all land lost in the 1967 Six-Day War) and will likely move to force international sanctions through the International Criminal Court (ICC) or move to open war with whatever partners they can find.
This grows even futher when you consider that Likud (the ruling party) has nominated a slate that is more conservative than they've had in years. If they get a plurality (and it is widely expected that they will) in the January elections, it will be seen as notice to the Arabs that they are ready and perhaps willing for a fight. More so with expectation that Iran will hit a critical milestone for the development of their nuclear arsenal in late Spring of next year.
Needless to say, I think it is going to get even uglier over there before it gets any better.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Thursday, November 15, 2012
The Rains of Castamere
Very difficult not to just hum this tune randomly through the day.
So speaks the pride of Lannister.
So speaks the pride of Lannister.
Thursday, November 08, 2012
Lux Aeterna
I should qualify that this is from Requiem for a Dream and not from 2001. An amazing piece of music.
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
The 51st State
Puerto Rico held a referendum yesterday and the news of that was somewhat lost amid the Presidential results.
The referendum was in two parts. The first part was whether to maintain their current status as a United States territory. The voters opted to terminate their status as a territory 53.99-46.01. The second part of the referendum was that if the majority opted to terminate the current status, they were to choose from three options: apply for statehood, independent nation status, or an independent nation with associated status with the United States (the US currently has this status with the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau). The voters opted for statehood with 61.15% of the vote. Associated free state came in second with 33.31% of the vote.
As such, the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico will draft legislation to be submitted to Congress applying for statehood. This bill will have to pass both the House and Senate and be signed by President Obama. I don't forsee anyone having a problem with accepting Puerto Rico as a full state after all this time so it is very possible that the 51st state will be admitted sometime next year.
The referendum was in two parts. The first part was whether to maintain their current status as a United States territory. The voters opted to terminate their status as a territory 53.99-46.01. The second part of the referendum was that if the majority opted to terminate the current status, they were to choose from three options: apply for statehood, independent nation status, or an independent nation with associated status with the United States (the US currently has this status with the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau). The voters opted for statehood with 61.15% of the vote. Associated free state came in second with 33.31% of the vote.
As such, the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico will draft legislation to be submitted to Congress applying for statehood. This bill will have to pass both the House and Senate and be signed by President Obama. I don't forsee anyone having a problem with accepting Puerto Rico as a full state after all this time so it is very possible that the 51st state will be admitted sometime next year.
Reelection
Blogger crapped out on me just before 10 last night so I was unable to do any additional updates, but there wasn't too much else to say.
For the second Presidential election in a row, I've not only been wrong, but very wrong. I had made the assumption that Mr. Romney would win based on a couple of key assumptions. First, that turnout for Mr. Obama would not be as high as it was in 2008. Voter enthusiasm for Mr. Obama seemed to be down and it wasn't hard to believe that what had been a D+7 electorate would reduce to a D+2 or 3. This may have in fact happened when you look at how much closer it was in terms of the raw numbers in each state.
The second assumption is the one that appears to have defeated me and several other pundits. Nearly every pollster was reporting a large volume of Independents supporting Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama won Independents in 2008 by several points but that had reversed itself in polling. It would appear that that was the mistake. Either Independents were not being honest in the various polls or their support for Mr. Romney was vastly overblown.
Either way, I was wrong and Mr. Obama has been reelected. Republicans maintained their control of the House while Democrats increased their strength in the Senate. For all practical purposes, this was a status quo election where the electorate opted to not rock the boat this time around.
For the second Presidential election in a row, I've not only been wrong, but very wrong. I had made the assumption that Mr. Romney would win based on a couple of key assumptions. First, that turnout for Mr. Obama would not be as high as it was in 2008. Voter enthusiasm for Mr. Obama seemed to be down and it wasn't hard to believe that what had been a D+7 electorate would reduce to a D+2 or 3. This may have in fact happened when you look at how much closer it was in terms of the raw numbers in each state.
The second assumption is the one that appears to have defeated me and several other pundits. Nearly every pollster was reporting a large volume of Independents supporting Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama won Independents in 2008 by several points but that had reversed itself in polling. It would appear that that was the mistake. Either Independents were not being honest in the various polls or their support for Mr. Romney was vastly overblown.
Either way, I was wrong and Mr. Obama has been reelected. Republicans maintained their control of the House while Democrats increased their strength in the Senate. For all practical purposes, this was a status quo election where the electorate opted to not rock the boat this time around.
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
Election Day
Today is Election Day and I'll be keeping my customary running commentary of the day.
7:00 AM Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, NH held their votes just after midnight and reported their results. Dixville Notch tied at 5-5 (it went to Obama 15-6 in 2008) and Hart's Location went to Obama 23-9 (Obama won there 17-10 in 2008). So Mr. Obama is currently leading in New Hampshire 28-14. The rest of New Hampshire polls close at 8:00 PM EST.
10:00 AM Early voting statistics are slowly leaking out for Ohio. Ohio doesn't report party affiliation so people are using county past history. In 2008, in counties that Mr. Obama won, early turnout was 24.8% of registered voters. Counties that Mr. McCain won had early turnout of 19.1% of registered voters.
This year, historicly blue counties are showing an early vote of 21.7% of registered voters while historically red counties are showing an early vote of 21.3% of registered voters. Again, we have no idea of what party affiliation is in these counties or any potential crossover support. Taking it as a whole, it suggests that Ohio will be close and probably called late tonight.
11:30 AM Anecdotal evidence from various coworkers has suggested that turnout is pretty heavy so far. No one reported on having to wait a very long time, like it was in the early voting period, but most people are reporting of seeing more people and having to wait at least a little bit due to volume.
2:15 PM Early voting numbers have been reported by party from Colorado.
Republican: 688,503
Democrat: 653,450
Independent: 547,437
Obviously we don't know what the breakdown is, but one would assume that this would be seen as an encouraging sign for the Romney campaign. (Of course, we all know what assuming does).
3:30 PM Got a meeting and then I'll be heading off to run an errand and then its off to the polling place to vote.
5:00 PM Number 404 in my prescint. Pretty busy but it moved pretty well.
6:00 PM Polls close in most of Indiana and eastern Kentucky. The states will not be called until all polls close at 7:00. I'll be curious to see what discussion is made about those states (if any) since they are generally expected to go for Romney.
6:10 PM Flipping around, it looks like FOX has stolen CNN's interactive map board. CNN is showing results from Kentucky, but are waiting until 7 to make the call.
7:30 PM Just got back from the Y. Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia have been called for Romney while Vermont has been called for Obama. Virginia and Ohio have not been called.
8:15 PM Maine, Massachussetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, Illinois, and Connecticut called for Obama. Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama, West Virginia, Mississippi called for Romney.
8:30 PM Arkansas called for Romney.
8:45 PM New Jersey called for Obama.
9:00 PM AP has called North Carolina for Romney.
9:10 PM Most of the plains states called for Romney. Obama takes New Mexico and New York. Michigan was called for Obama as well.
9:20 PM Pennsylvania called for Obama.
9:30 PM Wisconsin called for Obama.
9:40 PM Based on the various Senate calls, I'm guessing that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate.
9:48 PM CBS has called New Hampshire for Obama.
10:10 PM Blogger ate my last comment. The Senate is locked for the Democrats now. No calls are being made, but things are looking good for Obama in Florida, much to the surprise of just about everyone. If Florida goes to Obama, it's over.
7:00 AM Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, NH held their votes just after midnight and reported their results. Dixville Notch tied at 5-5 (it went to Obama 15-6 in 2008) and Hart's Location went to Obama 23-9 (Obama won there 17-10 in 2008). So Mr. Obama is currently leading in New Hampshire 28-14. The rest of New Hampshire polls close at 8:00 PM EST.
10:00 AM Early voting statistics are slowly leaking out for Ohio. Ohio doesn't report party affiliation so people are using county past history. In 2008, in counties that Mr. Obama won, early turnout was 24.8% of registered voters. Counties that Mr. McCain won had early turnout of 19.1% of registered voters.
This year, historicly blue counties are showing an early vote of 21.7% of registered voters while historically red counties are showing an early vote of 21.3% of registered voters. Again, we have no idea of what party affiliation is in these counties or any potential crossover support. Taking it as a whole, it suggests that Ohio will be close and probably called late tonight.
11:30 AM Anecdotal evidence from various coworkers has suggested that turnout is pretty heavy so far. No one reported on having to wait a very long time, like it was in the early voting period, but most people are reporting of seeing more people and having to wait at least a little bit due to volume.
2:15 PM Early voting numbers have been reported by party from Colorado.
Republican: 688,503
Democrat: 653,450
Independent: 547,437
Obviously we don't know what the breakdown is, but one would assume that this would be seen as an encouraging sign for the Romney campaign. (Of course, we all know what assuming does).
3:30 PM Got a meeting and then I'll be heading off to run an errand and then its off to the polling place to vote.
5:00 PM Number 404 in my prescint. Pretty busy but it moved pretty well.
6:00 PM Polls close in most of Indiana and eastern Kentucky. The states will not be called until all polls close at 7:00. I'll be curious to see what discussion is made about those states (if any) since they are generally expected to go for Romney.
6:10 PM Flipping around, it looks like FOX has stolen CNN's interactive map board. CNN is showing results from Kentucky, but are waiting until 7 to make the call.
7:30 PM Just got back from the Y. Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia have been called for Romney while Vermont has been called for Obama. Virginia and Ohio have not been called.
8:15 PM Maine, Massachussetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, Illinois, and Connecticut called for Obama. Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama, West Virginia, Mississippi called for Romney.
8:30 PM Arkansas called for Romney.
8:45 PM New Jersey called for Obama.
9:00 PM AP has called North Carolina for Romney.
9:10 PM Most of the plains states called for Romney. Obama takes New Mexico and New York. Michigan was called for Obama as well.
9:20 PM Pennsylvania called for Obama.
9:30 PM Wisconsin called for Obama.
9:40 PM Based on the various Senate calls, I'm guessing that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate.
9:48 PM CBS has called New Hampshire for Obama.
10:10 PM Blogger ate my last comment. The Senate is locked for the Democrats now. No calls are being made, but things are looking good for Obama in Florida, much to the surprise of just about everyone. If Florida goes to Obama, it's over.
Electoral Predictions
Since I've lost the ability to post pictures in IE7 (and that's all I have at work), I've had to create my predictions using 270towin. I've opted for three different scenarios:
The first scenario is the minimum scenario. I think this is the best that Mr. Obama is going to do tonight, and it's still a loss. On this map, Mr. Romney wins 285-253.
It is generally accepted that Mr. Romney is going to win all the McCain states, Indiana and North Carolina. After this, although the Obama campaign is denying it, Florida and Virginia are close to out of their reach as well. Mr. Romney has crossed the 50% threshhold in several polls and has maintained a small lead for several weeks.
The next level is New Hampshire and Colorado. Polls in these states have been tied or shown Mr. Romney with a statistically insignificant lead. But the trend has been towards Mr. Romney and voter enthusiasm (espcially as measured by early voting in Colorado) has been on Mr. Romney's side.
That leaves Ohio and Iowa. Iowa has been very close but neither side has been showing an edge. Ohio has been shown as being close but in Mr. Obama's column. However, in both states, the polling I've seen has been heavily dependent on Democratic turnout closer to the 2008 model. While I do not think it will be as Republican as the 2010 mid-terms, I think it will be close enough that Ohio and Iowa will swing to Mr. Romney.
The second scenario is my own personal gut feeling on how things will go if it is a good night for Mr. Romney. In this one, Wisconsin and Nevada swing to Mr. Romney as well as the states in the 285 scenario, giving Mr. Romney a 301-237 win.
Nevada is solely a gut feeling. Polling has been close but Mr. Obama has always maintained a lead. Unlike a few other states, I've not seen any significant tightening, although the numbers are close enough that a strong independent turnout in favor of Mr. Romney will tip the state into the Republican column.
Wisconsin is also close. It narrowly eluded George W. Bush's grasp twice and it has swung Republican (albeit narrowly) in the last few races involving local issues. Polling has been close, but the recent history of the state and the inclusion of Paul Ryan might be enough to tip the state red.
The third scenario is the Obama nuclear scenario. In this one, Mr. Romney wins a decisive win on the scale of what Mr. Obama won four years ago. I think this scenario is extremely unlikely, but based on a few of the news stories that have come out in the last few days, it is not impossible. In this one, several states (PA, OR, MI, and MN) that have not gone red since at least 1988, turn giving Mr. Romney a 360-178 win.
I only pick these states as polling has shown a potential tight race. Pennsylvania is close enough that Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan have campaigned in the state this past weekend. Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico, and Maine's second district have been somewhat close, enough to speculate that in a huge Republican turnout event, these states would flip over to Mr. Romney.
We shall see if any of these scenarios play out tonight. But, barring something completely out of left field, I think Mr. Romney will win, and become the 45th President of the United States.
The first scenario is the minimum scenario. I think this is the best that Mr. Obama is going to do tonight, and it's still a loss. On this map, Mr. Romney wins 285-253.
It is generally accepted that Mr. Romney is going to win all the McCain states, Indiana and North Carolina. After this, although the Obama campaign is denying it, Florida and Virginia are close to out of their reach as well. Mr. Romney has crossed the 50% threshhold in several polls and has maintained a small lead for several weeks.
The next level is New Hampshire and Colorado. Polls in these states have been tied or shown Mr. Romney with a statistically insignificant lead. But the trend has been towards Mr. Romney and voter enthusiasm (espcially as measured by early voting in Colorado) has been on Mr. Romney's side.
That leaves Ohio and Iowa. Iowa has been very close but neither side has been showing an edge. Ohio has been shown as being close but in Mr. Obama's column. However, in both states, the polling I've seen has been heavily dependent on Democratic turnout closer to the 2008 model. While I do not think it will be as Republican as the 2010 mid-terms, I think it will be close enough that Ohio and Iowa will swing to Mr. Romney.
The second scenario is my own personal gut feeling on how things will go if it is a good night for Mr. Romney. In this one, Wisconsin and Nevada swing to Mr. Romney as well as the states in the 285 scenario, giving Mr. Romney a 301-237 win.
Nevada is solely a gut feeling. Polling has been close but Mr. Obama has always maintained a lead. Unlike a few other states, I've not seen any significant tightening, although the numbers are close enough that a strong independent turnout in favor of Mr. Romney will tip the state into the Republican column.
Wisconsin is also close. It narrowly eluded George W. Bush's grasp twice and it has swung Republican (albeit narrowly) in the last few races involving local issues. Polling has been close, but the recent history of the state and the inclusion of Paul Ryan might be enough to tip the state red.
The third scenario is the Obama nuclear scenario. In this one, Mr. Romney wins a decisive win on the scale of what Mr. Obama won four years ago. I think this scenario is extremely unlikely, but based on a few of the news stories that have come out in the last few days, it is not impossible. In this one, several states (PA, OR, MI, and MN) that have not gone red since at least 1988, turn giving Mr. Romney a 360-178 win.
I only pick these states as polling has shown a potential tight race. Pennsylvania is close enough that Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan have campaigned in the state this past weekend. Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico, and Maine's second district have been somewhat close, enough to speculate that in a huge Republican turnout event, these states would flip over to Mr. Romney.
We shall see if any of these scenarios play out tonight. But, barring something completely out of left field, I think Mr. Romney will win, and become the 45th President of the United States.
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