The Soundtrack to Brave is very catchy, especially if you like Scottish jigs and bagpipes.
This is "Touch the Sky", the openning credits song.
This is "The Games" when we have the set up for the archery contest. Wall o' bagpipes in this one.
This is "Song of Mor'du" a song the warriors sing as they dream of killing Mor'du.
This is "Show Us the Way" when Merida falls into Mor'du's lair.
This is "A Mhaighdean Bhan Uasal" the song Eleanor sings to Merida in a flashback.
This is "Learn Me Right", the closing credits song.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Friday, July 27, 2012
London Opening Ceremonies
Today marks the Opening Ceremonies of the 2012 London Olympics. Technically, the Olympics started two days ago with some opening group matches in women's soccer but no one is really paying attention to that. As far as everyone is concerned, everything kicks off today.
There's been a little bit of strife going on as several London unions (cabbies and police most notably) have gone on mini-strikes or threatened to because of how bad the conditions have turned with the influx of people to London for the games. A large segment of the British army has been brought in to London to aid the police in security. There have also been several arrests recently on terrorism charges (bomb making mostly) that may have included plans for the Olympics (authorities won't say).
Adding to this was Mr. Romney's comment that he wasn't sure if London was ready for the games. Mr. Romney has experience in these matters due to his running of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics, but it likely would have been more tactful to not say anything. The British authorities are already stressed out that they don't need a bit of needling from someone who has already done the job.
I certainly hope that it will be a good games and an entertaining Opening Ceremony. I don't know if it's the bad vibes from the stuff mentioned above or what, but I can't help but shake the feeling that something bad might happen, if not tonight, then at some point in the games, much like the 1972 Munich games forty years ago. We shall see.
There's been a little bit of strife going on as several London unions (cabbies and police most notably) have gone on mini-strikes or threatened to because of how bad the conditions have turned with the influx of people to London for the games. A large segment of the British army has been brought in to London to aid the police in security. There have also been several arrests recently on terrorism charges (bomb making mostly) that may have included plans for the Olympics (authorities won't say).
Adding to this was Mr. Romney's comment that he wasn't sure if London was ready for the games. Mr. Romney has experience in these matters due to his running of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics, but it likely would have been more tactful to not say anything. The British authorities are already stressed out that they don't need a bit of needling from someone who has already done the job.
I certainly hope that it will be a good games and an entertaining Opening Ceremony. I don't know if it's the bad vibes from the stuff mentioned above or what, but I can't help but shake the feeling that something bad might happen, if not tonight, then at some point in the games, much like the 1972 Munich games forty years ago. We shall see.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
What Every Guy Thinks of Titanic
This is from How it Should Have Ended. It covers a few of the major problems that jump out at you when you see Titanic. It also shows how Rose is a complete moron.
Monday, July 23, 2012
Cooking Music
These are some of my favorites from Ratatouille. The first one is when Colette is showing Linguini the basics of the kitchen. I don't know if Colette or the music is supposed to be Catalian, but that's how I imagine it.
The second is "Special Order" and is a nice jazzy French tune. It reminds me a lot of Henry Mancini's Pink Panther music.
The End Credits also make a nice round up of the musical flavor of the movie.
The second is "Special Order" and is a nice jazzy French tune. It reminds me a lot of Henry Mancini's Pink Panther music.
The End Credits also make a nice round up of the musical flavor of the movie.
Friday, July 20, 2012
Colorado Theater Shooting
Far more sophisticated blogs and news sites will do a far better job covering this, but I thought I would throw my own two cents in.
The alledged shooter, James Holmes, is currently in police custody. Just reading the surface stuff, this fellow appears to be both intellegent and highly disturbed. He obviously planned all this well in advance, striking a target he knew would be packed full of people. His use of armor suggest that he anticipated encountering counterfire (from either police or armed theater patrons) and he wanted to either survive or make sure that it took more than a lucky shot to stop him. He also set up an elaborate booby trap bomb system in his apartment to kill even more people once he had been taken down, one way or the other. The system is elaborate enough that the Denver bomb squad has requested additional assistance from the FBI in disarming the trap.
Naturally, there has been much speculation on his motives and ideology. ABC speculated that he might have been a member of the Tea Party due to a similar name (Jim Holmes) listed as an active member, but that James Holmes has been identified as a man in his 50's while the shooter is listed as 24. Other speculation has tied him to a James Holmes listed as a member of the Black Bloc, an anarchist splinter group of the Occupy movement.
Whatever his ideology, it can be agreed that he is a very dangerously disturbed man who should be locked away for a very long time.
Last report I heard was that the death toll was between 12 and 14, with the youngest confirmed death a six-year old child. May God guide the hands of the doctors to save the rest and comfort the loved ones of the slain.
*UPDATE*
The James Holmes in question seems to have enrolled at University of Colorado a year ago to pursue a PHD in neuroscience and dropped out last month. It has suggested that he may have brewed the gas that he let loose in the theater himself. The doctors treating the victims have been very careful and not simply assumed that they are dealing with either smoke or tear gas. No confirmation has been given about the nature of the gas, one way or another.
The alledged shooter, James Holmes, is currently in police custody. Just reading the surface stuff, this fellow appears to be both intellegent and highly disturbed. He obviously planned all this well in advance, striking a target he knew would be packed full of people. His use of armor suggest that he anticipated encountering counterfire (from either police or armed theater patrons) and he wanted to either survive or make sure that it took more than a lucky shot to stop him. He also set up an elaborate booby trap bomb system in his apartment to kill even more people once he had been taken down, one way or the other. The system is elaborate enough that the Denver bomb squad has requested additional assistance from the FBI in disarming the trap.
Naturally, there has been much speculation on his motives and ideology. ABC speculated that he might have been a member of the Tea Party due to a similar name (Jim Holmes) listed as an active member, but that James Holmes has been identified as a man in his 50's while the shooter is listed as 24. Other speculation has tied him to a James Holmes listed as a member of the Black Bloc, an anarchist splinter group of the Occupy movement.
Whatever his ideology, it can be agreed that he is a very dangerously disturbed man who should be locked away for a very long time.
Last report I heard was that the death toll was between 12 and 14, with the youngest confirmed death a six-year old child. May God guide the hands of the doctors to save the rest and comfort the loved ones of the slain.
*UPDATE*
The James Holmes in question seems to have enrolled at University of Colorado a year ago to pursue a PHD in neuroscience and dropped out last month. It has suggested that he may have brewed the gas that he let loose in the theater himself. The doctors treating the victims have been very careful and not simply assumed that they are dealing with either smoke or tear gas. No confirmation has been given about the nature of the gas, one way or another.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
O Filii et Filiae
When going through the various Mystery! themes I like, I was reminded of my copy of Cadfael. The second piece on the CD is a chorus (The Clerks of St. Albans Abbey specifically) singing a traditional Catholic Easter piece called O Filii et Filiae (O Sons and Daughters), written in 1494 and based off a French melody. It is quite enjoyable to listen to.
The lyrics are as follows:
Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.
Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.
O filii et filiae,
Rex caelestis, Rex gloriae
morte surrexit hodie.
Alleluia
Ex mane prima Sabbati
ad ostium monumenti
accesserunt discipuli.
Alleluia
Et Maria Magdalene,
et Iacobi, et Salome
Venerunt corpus ungere
Alleluia
In albis sedens angelus
praedixit mulieribus:
In Galilaea est Dominus.
Alleluia
Et Ioannes apostolus
cucurrit Petro citius,
monumento venit prius.
Alleluia
Beati qui non viderunt
et firmiter crediderunt;
vitam aeternam habebunt.
Alleluia
In hoc festo sanctissimo
sit laus et iubilatio:
benedicamus Domino.
Alleluia
Ex quibus nos humillimas
devotas atque debitas
Deo dicamus gratias.
Alleluia
An English equivalent is as follows:
Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.
Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.
Ye sons and daughters of the Lord,
the King of glory, King adored,
this day Himself from death restored.
Alleluia
All in the early morning gray
went holy women on their way,
to see the tomb where Jesus lay.
Alleluia
Of spices pure a precious store
in their pure hands these women bore,
to anoint the sacred Body o'er.
Alleluia
The straightaway one in white they see,
who saith, "seek the Lord: but He
is risen and gone to Galilee."
Alleluia
This told they Peter, told John;
who forthwith to the tomb are gone,
but Peter is by John outrun.
Alleluia
Oh, blest are they who have not seen
their Lord and yet believe in Him!
eternal life awaitheth them.
Alleluia
Now let us praise the Lord most high,
and strive His name to magnify
on this great day, through earth and sky:
Alleluia
Whose mercy ever runneth o'er;
Whom men and Angel hosts adore;
to Him be glory evermore.
Alleluia
The lyrics are as follows:
Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.
Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.
O filii et filiae,
Rex caelestis, Rex gloriae
morte surrexit hodie.
Alleluia
Ex mane prima Sabbati
ad ostium monumenti
accesserunt discipuli.
Alleluia
Et Maria Magdalene,
et Iacobi, et Salome
Venerunt corpus ungere
Alleluia
In albis sedens angelus
praedixit mulieribus:
In Galilaea est Dominus.
Alleluia
Et Ioannes apostolus
cucurrit Petro citius,
monumento venit prius.
Alleluia
Beati qui non viderunt
et firmiter crediderunt;
vitam aeternam habebunt.
Alleluia
In hoc festo sanctissimo
sit laus et iubilatio:
benedicamus Domino.
Alleluia
Ex quibus nos humillimas
devotas atque debitas
Deo dicamus gratias.
Alleluia
An English equivalent is as follows:
Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.
Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.
Ye sons and daughters of the Lord,
the King of glory, King adored,
this day Himself from death restored.
Alleluia
All in the early morning gray
went holy women on their way,
to see the tomb where Jesus lay.
Alleluia
Of spices pure a precious store
in their pure hands these women bore,
to anoint the sacred Body o'er.
Alleluia
The straightaway one in white they see,
who saith, "seek the Lord: but He
is risen and gone to Galilee."
Alleluia
This told they Peter, told John;
who forthwith to the tomb are gone,
but Peter is by John outrun.
Alleluia
Oh, blest are they who have not seen
their Lord and yet believe in Him!
eternal life awaitheth them.
Alleluia
Now let us praise the Lord most high,
and strive His name to magnify
on this great day, through earth and sky:
Alleluia
Whose mercy ever runneth o'er;
Whom men and Angel hosts adore;
to Him be glory evermore.
Alleluia
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Poll Frustrations
If you are a political junkie like me, one of the biggest things to play with is polls. Unfortunately, polls are also so easily manipulated based on the pollster's inherent bias, with the most common form being the weighting sample.
Weighting sample is a way that pollsters manipulate the data to make it conform to their expectations. For example, a pollster may get a set of data and his raw data says that the sample was 40% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 30% Independent. If he believes that he has oversampled Democrats and undersampled Republicans, he will apply some factor that will bring the sample more in line to his own expectations and thus be more believable.
In 2008, exit polls showed that the split among voters was 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 29% Independent. Mr. Obama won nationally by 7-points. However, in the 2010 mid-terms, voter split nationally was 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 30% Independent. Democrats, by in large, were defeated, with Republicans capturing many state offices and the House of Representatives.
From this we can see a significant swing in party affiliation in only two years. Independents remained stable (only shifting by one point) but Democrats dropped by four and Republicans increased by three. The conclusion that one is drawn to, is that predicting the final outcome is a shot in the dark, although one can expect the numbers to fall within a set of norms.
It is unlikely that Mr. Obama will be able to regenerate the same level of voter enthusiasm that he had in 2008 so the 39/32/29 sample represents an extreme Democratic end. Likewise, with a national race to motivate Democrats, it is unlikely that they will be as docile as they were in 2010 so the 35/35/30 sample represents an extreme Republican end. If I were a pollster, I would probably settle on something close to a 36/33/31 model until I saw something that prompted me to shift it to either the left or right.
Of course, most news outlets don't report the polling sample in the headline, they just give the overall number (Obama and Romney tied at 47-47, for example). Hence the frustration with trying to look at the public mood from polls. It does teach one to be skeptical of polls until you can dig down into the raw data and draw your own conclusions, which is a good life lesson in general.
Weighting sample is a way that pollsters manipulate the data to make it conform to their expectations. For example, a pollster may get a set of data and his raw data says that the sample was 40% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 30% Independent. If he believes that he has oversampled Democrats and undersampled Republicans, he will apply some factor that will bring the sample more in line to his own expectations and thus be more believable.
In 2008, exit polls showed that the split among voters was 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 29% Independent. Mr. Obama won nationally by 7-points. However, in the 2010 mid-terms, voter split nationally was 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 30% Independent. Democrats, by in large, were defeated, with Republicans capturing many state offices and the House of Representatives.
From this we can see a significant swing in party affiliation in only two years. Independents remained stable (only shifting by one point) but Democrats dropped by four and Republicans increased by three. The conclusion that one is drawn to, is that predicting the final outcome is a shot in the dark, although one can expect the numbers to fall within a set of norms.
It is unlikely that Mr. Obama will be able to regenerate the same level of voter enthusiasm that he had in 2008 so the 39/32/29 sample represents an extreme Democratic end. Likewise, with a national race to motivate Democrats, it is unlikely that they will be as docile as they were in 2010 so the 35/35/30 sample represents an extreme Republican end. If I were a pollster, I would probably settle on something close to a 36/33/31 model until I saw something that prompted me to shift it to either the left or right.
Of course, most news outlets don't report the polling sample in the headline, they just give the overall number (Obama and Romney tied at 47-47, for example). Hence the frustration with trying to look at the public mood from polls. It does teach one to be skeptical of polls until you can dig down into the raw data and draw your own conclusions, which is a good life lesson in general.
Friday, July 06, 2012
Working Through Falken's Maze
From the best Hacker movie ever. Many childhood memories are dredged up by this music.
Tuesday, July 03, 2012
State Trends - July
Time for this month's update of state trends. There isn't much movement between this month and last month but this is all without the influence of the Obamacare decision. The shift between July and August could be dramatic, especially as things start to gear up towards the conventions.
The three changes I've made since June are that I've downgraded Michigan and upgraded Missouri and Arizona. There was a lot of polling around the middle of June that showed Michigan slipping into Toss Up territory. There was one poll that showed Mr. Obama with an 8-point lead, but the others showed him with only a 1 or 2 point lead and one poll even showed Mr. Romney up by one. All of these led me to downgrade Michigan to "Lean Obama" from "Likely Obama".
The Supreme Court's strike down of most of the Arizona Illegal Immigration law might motivate Hispanics in that state, but until then, the most recent polling has shown Mr. Romney's lead grow to over 10-points. As such, I bounced it up to "Likely Romney" from "Lean Romney".
Missouri is more of a feeling. Mr. Romney's lead in Missouri is only about 5-7 points according to recent polls. However, I've seen a couple of articles talking about how Missouri is no longer a bellweather but a red state. I've held that view for several years now. There has also been some discontented rumblings from Missouri Democrats, which suggests to me that they are starting to distance themselves from Mr. Obama. Given that, I thought it merited moving Missouri up to "Likely Romney" from "Lean Romney".
Everything else remains the same and I wouldn't expect too much movement until September, but a lot could happen of the next month if people start paying attention to the campaign earlier than usual.
The three changes I've made since June are that I've downgraded Michigan and upgraded Missouri and Arizona. There was a lot of polling around the middle of June that showed Michigan slipping into Toss Up territory. There was one poll that showed Mr. Obama with an 8-point lead, but the others showed him with only a 1 or 2 point lead and one poll even showed Mr. Romney up by one. All of these led me to downgrade Michigan to "Lean Obama" from "Likely Obama".
The Supreme Court's strike down of most of the Arizona Illegal Immigration law might motivate Hispanics in that state, but until then, the most recent polling has shown Mr. Romney's lead grow to over 10-points. As such, I bounced it up to "Likely Romney" from "Lean Romney".
Missouri is more of a feeling. Mr. Romney's lead in Missouri is only about 5-7 points according to recent polls. However, I've seen a couple of articles talking about how Missouri is no longer a bellweather but a red state. I've held that view for several years now. There has also been some discontented rumblings from Missouri Democrats, which suggests to me that they are starting to distance themselves from Mr. Obama. Given that, I thought it merited moving Missouri up to "Likely Romney" from "Lean Romney".
Everything else remains the same and I wouldn't expect too much movement until September, but a lot could happen of the next month if people start paying attention to the campaign earlier than usual.
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