I've been reading a bit on the three day Supreme Court hearings about Obamacare. The first day dealt with the definition of the mandate as whether it is a tax or not. Should it be ruled a tax, the rest of the case gets thrown out because a tax law cannot be challenged in court until at least one year after the tax is collected and the taxes in Obamacare are not collected until 2014.
Day two of the hearings dealt directly with the mandate and whether or not it violates the Commerce Clause of the 14th Amendment. Day three dealt with the lack of a severability clause in the law. It was specifically about the severability clause that I got some edification today.
I was under the impression (I think like most people) that a severability clause is inserted into a bill so that if one part of a law is determined to be unconstitutional then only that part is thrown out and the rest of the law is still good. However, that doesn't seem to be the case. A severability clause is included to denote the intention of Congress that should a portion of the law be found unconstitutional, they don't care if that part is struck out. If they want it, they'll go back and pass it as a separate law in a restructured manner.
The lack of a severability clause, and in this case it was intentionally left out, denotes that it is Congress' intention that they are not kosher with any portion of the law being struck out and therefore intend that if any one part goes down, the whole thing goes down. In the case of Obamacare, the severability clause was left out because the mandate is how this thing is paid for. If it is struck out, the whole thing has no way to pay for itself and will drive itself out of control economically.
Now, whether the Supreme Court sees it quite that way is another question. They could choose to override Congress' opinion and say that the law is still ok even if the mandate is struck down. I doubt it will because so much of the law is layered on top of each other that if the mandate goes, the rest of the law will collapse in a tangled mess of unreferenced strings (think of it as program code with a series of unclosed "if statements").
My own personal opinion is that everything hinges on the second day arguments. I think the Supremes will will rule (perhaps 9-0) that the mandate is not a tax, because it doesn't fit that definition. Plus, they're itching to go at this thing so they're not going to punt this thing three years down the road. If they were interested in punting, they never would have fast-tracked the case to this session.
So it comes down to how the mandate relates to the Commerce Clause. I think it will go 5-4, but I'm not sure as to which way Justice Kennedy will swing. He gave indications during oral arguments that could be read as positive and negative for both sides. We'll find out in June.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Monday, March 26, 2012
Santorum Goes Cajun
On Saturday, Rick Santorum won the Louisiana Primary with 49% of the vote. Mr. Romney came in second at 27%, while Newt finished a very disappointing third at 16%.
Louisiana was only doling out 20 of it's 46 delegates at this point. Because of a 25% threshold rule, Mr. Santorum will receive 10 delegates, Mr. Romney 5, and the remaining 5 will be unbound. The rest will be assigned at the state convention on June 2.
We now go into a lull week before picking back up again. Next Tuesday (April 3) will see Washington DC, Maryland, and Wisconsin vote. That will be followed by the district convention in Colorado and the state convention in Wyoming on April 14 where actual delegates will be selected.
In all likelihood, this will be where Mr. Romney mathematically eliminates Mr. Santorum from winning the nomination outright. Mr. Santorum (and Newt if he's still in it) will be playing prevent defense after that to simply deny Mr. Romney the nomination on the first ballot and force things through multiple convention votes. How successful that strategy will be remains to be seen.
Louisiana was only doling out 20 of it's 46 delegates at this point. Because of a 25% threshold rule, Mr. Santorum will receive 10 delegates, Mr. Romney 5, and the remaining 5 will be unbound. The rest will be assigned at the state convention on June 2.
We now go into a lull week before picking back up again. Next Tuesday (April 3) will see Washington DC, Maryland, and Wisconsin vote. That will be followed by the district convention in Colorado and the state convention in Wyoming on April 14 where actual delegates will be selected.
In all likelihood, this will be where Mr. Romney mathematically eliminates Mr. Santorum from winning the nomination outright. Mr. Santorum (and Newt if he's still in it) will be playing prevent defense after that to simply deny Mr. Romney the nomination on the first ballot and force things through multiple convention votes. How successful that strategy will be remains to be seen.
Friday, March 23, 2012
Thursday, March 22, 2012
France Nearly Surrenders to Lone Gunman
Poor France. They tried to surrender but just couldn't quite do it.
Mohammad Merah murdered seven people (3 soldiers, 3 Jewish children, and 1 rabbi) over the course of a week. French police managed to corner Merah in an apartment building and then started to negotiate. Merah strung the French police along, telling them he would come out after dark and then reneging. The police were no better as they threatened to storm the building, started to attack, and then backed off.
After nearly 32 hours, someone in the police department grew a pair and ordered the men in. Merah pinned himself in a bathroom and came out guns blazing. Overwhelmed by the ferocity of the attack, the police retreated. Merah then attempted to get away by jumping out a window. It has not yet been released as to whether Merah was killed due to the fall or if he was shot while climbing out the window. The police are stating that they did have snipers on the surrounding buildings so it is possible (and probably likely) that a sniper took him out while he was climbing out the window.
Props to the men who took out the scumbag but there is no way he should have been able to hold the police off as long as he did. Not only did it give him a platform to parade on but it gave him far too much time to set booby traps and other nasty surprises had he been so inclined. The French got lucky that only two of their men were injured in the attack. Hopefully they learn from this and if it happens again, they will act quicker and more decisively.
Mohammad Merah murdered seven people (3 soldiers, 3 Jewish children, and 1 rabbi) over the course of a week. French police managed to corner Merah in an apartment building and then started to negotiate. Merah strung the French police along, telling them he would come out after dark and then reneging. The police were no better as they threatened to storm the building, started to attack, and then backed off.
After nearly 32 hours, someone in the police department grew a pair and ordered the men in. Merah pinned himself in a bathroom and came out guns blazing. Overwhelmed by the ferocity of the attack, the police retreated. Merah then attempted to get away by jumping out a window. It has not yet been released as to whether Merah was killed due to the fall or if he was shot while climbing out the window. The police are stating that they did have snipers on the surrounding buildings so it is possible (and probably likely) that a sniper took him out while he was climbing out the window.
Props to the men who took out the scumbag but there is no way he should have been able to hold the police off as long as he did. Not only did it give him a platform to parade on but it gave him far too much time to set booby traps and other nasty surprises had he been so inclined. The French got lucky that only two of their men were injured in the attack. Hopefully they learn from this and if it happens again, they will act quicker and more decisively.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Timmy and the Jets
Tim Tebow has been traded to the NY Jets for a 4th round draft pick.
I have to admit, this trade makes no sense to me whatsoever. Mark Sanchez was recently resigned to a considerable contract and despite having a "meh" year last year, he was good enough his first two years to get the Jets to the AFC Championship game. What's more, Sanchez is a bit of a fragile ego. He's going to be feeling the heat on this one quickly. If he screws up at all, the Jets fans will be screaming for Tebow to come in and that will only accelerate Sanchez's spiral.
There is also the culture clash. Coach Rex Ryan is one of the most foul-mouthed coaches out there and the Jets are somewhat known for being bad boys both on and off the field. Maybe not as bad as the Raiders but pretty close. Now you throw in the choir boy who openly prays on the sidelines. He may not say anything but his presence and actions may act as more of an irritant rather than an aid.
If I were a Jets fan (and I'm not) I'd actually be quite worried about what the heck the front office is thinking on this one.
I have to admit, this trade makes no sense to me whatsoever. Mark Sanchez was recently resigned to a considerable contract and despite having a "meh" year last year, he was good enough his first two years to get the Jets to the AFC Championship game. What's more, Sanchez is a bit of a fragile ego. He's going to be feeling the heat on this one quickly. If he screws up at all, the Jets fans will be screaming for Tebow to come in and that will only accelerate Sanchez's spiral.
There is also the culture clash. Coach Rex Ryan is one of the most foul-mouthed coaches out there and the Jets are somewhat known for being bad boys both on and off the field. Maybe not as bad as the Raiders but pretty close. Now you throw in the choir boy who openly prays on the sidelines. He may not say anything but his presence and actions may act as more of an irritant rather than an aid.
If I were a Jets fan (and I'm not) I'd actually be quite worried about what the heck the front office is thinking on this one.
Fait Accompli?
Mr. Romney has about a 300 delegate lead over Mr. Santorum and is close to 50% of the total delegates that he needs to secure the nomination. What's more, if you look ahead to the schedule in April, things are looking pretty rosy for Mr. Romney.
In the month of April, there will be primaries/caucuses in Washington DC, Maryland, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, New York, and Pennsylvania. What's more, several of these contests are winner-take-all (either outright, or per each Congressional District). I would expect Mr. Romney to win almost all of these contests, with only Wisconsin and Pennsylvania offering an opportunity for Mr. Santorum to win (and I wouldn't bet large sums on those two states).
Mr. Santorum can console himself somewhat in that the geography favors him in May (Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Texas), but that might not matter after the beating that he will take in April.
Does that mean that Mr. Romney has already achieved fait accompli? No, but he's pretty close. After April, Mr. Romney will have essentially mathematically eliminated Mr. Santorum and Newt (should he still be in it). But it is still better than 50-50 that Mr. Romney will not reach 1144 bound delegates by the time the Utah delegates are assigned on June 26.
He will probably be very close. I'd be willing to bet that he will be somewhere between 1050 and 1100 delegates. If that is the case, the unbound party delegates will almost certainly unite behind him and push him over the top. There will be a lot of grumbling about that among the base (party elders picking the candidate) but everyone will fall in line as the general kicks in to gear.
If Mr. Santorum wishes to thwart this scenario and ensure that Mr. Romney does not secure the nomination on the first ballot of the convention, he probably needs to keep Mr. Romney at least 100 delegates away from the nomination. If he could somehow keep him below 1000 delegates, that would be gravy. Once the first ballot is over, almost all bound delegates are released and can vote however they choose to go (or are persuaded to go).
To accomplish this, Mr. Santorum will need to seize Mr. Romney's delegates in the caucuses where things are unsettled and bleed Mr. Romney in the proportional states. This is especially true in New York and California. Ideally, he would crush Mr. Romney in Texas as well.
I would not give high odds on this happening, but it does give an insight in to how it could happen. This gives an insight into the mindset of the Santorum camp as to how they think they will swing the nomination. Odder things have happened, but Occam's Razor...
In the month of April, there will be primaries/caucuses in Washington DC, Maryland, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, New York, and Pennsylvania. What's more, several of these contests are winner-take-all (either outright, or per each Congressional District). I would expect Mr. Romney to win almost all of these contests, with only Wisconsin and Pennsylvania offering an opportunity for Mr. Santorum to win (and I wouldn't bet large sums on those two states).
Mr. Santorum can console himself somewhat in that the geography favors him in May (Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Texas), but that might not matter after the beating that he will take in April.
Does that mean that Mr. Romney has already achieved fait accompli? No, but he's pretty close. After April, Mr. Romney will have essentially mathematically eliminated Mr. Santorum and Newt (should he still be in it). But it is still better than 50-50 that Mr. Romney will not reach 1144 bound delegates by the time the Utah delegates are assigned on June 26.
He will probably be very close. I'd be willing to bet that he will be somewhere between 1050 and 1100 delegates. If that is the case, the unbound party delegates will almost certainly unite behind him and push him over the top. There will be a lot of grumbling about that among the base (party elders picking the candidate) but everyone will fall in line as the general kicks in to gear.
If Mr. Santorum wishes to thwart this scenario and ensure that Mr. Romney does not secure the nomination on the first ballot of the convention, he probably needs to keep Mr. Romney at least 100 delegates away from the nomination. If he could somehow keep him below 1000 delegates, that would be gravy. Once the first ballot is over, almost all bound delegates are released and can vote however they choose to go (or are persuaded to go).
To accomplish this, Mr. Santorum will need to seize Mr. Romney's delegates in the caucuses where things are unsettled and bleed Mr. Romney in the proportional states. This is especially true in New York and California. Ideally, he would crush Mr. Romney in Texas as well.
I would not give high odds on this happening, but it does give an insight in to how it could happen. This gives an insight into the mindset of the Santorum camp as to how they think they will swing the nomination. Odder things have happened, but Occam's Razor...
Romney Wins Illinois
As expected, Mitt Romney won Illinois. I was actually quite surprised that the networks didn't call it at 8 pm (they instead called it about 45 minutes later). Romney won fairly handily (47-35) and took 42 of the 54 available delegates. His hard total now stands at 485 although when you factor in caucus projections and verbal pledges from various unbound delegates he creeps up to about 545. This is about 300 delegates ahead of Mr. Santorum's total.
Next we have Louisiana on Saturday. We should also get the results from the Missouri caucuses. Those delegates are only to the district and state convention so their technically is still no allocation to any candidate. We won't get that until April 21. Then we have a reprieve until April 3 when Maryland, Wisconsin, and Washington DC all have their contests.
The big question that is floating around is when Newt will be forced to suspend his campaign. He is now officially running in the red and since nearly everyone but him sees the writing on the wall, his campaign donations are drying up. His major SuperPAC donor has also stated that he will no longer be giving that entity any more money. In all likelihood, Newt will limp through Louisiana and then cease to actively campaign. Whether he formally suspends his campaign is questionable, but economic reality will prevent him from doing anything other than keep his name on the ballot.
Next we have Louisiana on Saturday. We should also get the results from the Missouri caucuses. Those delegates are only to the district and state convention so their technically is still no allocation to any candidate. We won't get that until April 21. Then we have a reprieve until April 3 when Maryland, Wisconsin, and Washington DC all have their contests.
The big question that is floating around is when Newt will be forced to suspend his campaign. He is now officially running in the red and since nearly everyone but him sees the writing on the wall, his campaign donations are drying up. His major SuperPAC donor has also stated that he will no longer be giving that entity any more money. In all likelihood, Newt will limp through Louisiana and then cease to actively campaign. Whether he formally suspends his campaign is questionable, but economic reality will prevent him from doing anything other than keep his name on the ballot.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Illinois Today
Today is the Republican primary in Illinois. Most polls show Mr. Romney winning easily, the only question will be the margin. What's more, Mr. Santorum failed to file enough signatures in four Congressional districts, making him ineligible for 10 of the 54 available delegates. Those will likely go to Mr. Romney, unless there is a large Newt protest vote. Polls close at 7 pm CDT (8 pm EDT).
Also over the weekend were the Puerto Rico caucuses. Mr. Romney won those by 74 points (82-8) and was awarded all 20 delegates.
Missouri is holding caucuses as well. Most of them occurred on Saturday with a rather entertaining fight breaking out at the one in St. Charles when a few Ron Paul supporters took umbrage with the caucus rules against filming the proceedings. A few people were arrested and the caucus was cancelled. I have no idea if they'll make it up before the caucuses end this Saturday. Like the primary back in February, the caucus is non-binding but at least it is electing delegates to the district and state conventions. The district convention meets on April 21 and will pick 24 of the 49 available delegates while the remaining 25 are selected at the June 2 state convention.
So, for recap, Mr. Romney has 491 (443 confirmed) delegates while Mr. Santorum has 232 (182 confirmed). Newt and Uncle Ron are still out there but they are starting to fade further and further into the background. Mr. Romney has almost 43% of the delegates he needs to secure the win and geography and primary style suggest that he will do well in April. I don't think he will be able to win mathematically until June (depending on how he does in California) but I don't see a situation where he will lose his mantle of front-runner for the duration.
Also over the weekend were the Puerto Rico caucuses. Mr. Romney won those by 74 points (82-8) and was awarded all 20 delegates.
Missouri is holding caucuses as well. Most of them occurred on Saturday with a rather entertaining fight breaking out at the one in St. Charles when a few Ron Paul supporters took umbrage with the caucus rules against filming the proceedings. A few people were arrested and the caucus was cancelled. I have no idea if they'll make it up before the caucuses end this Saturday. Like the primary back in February, the caucus is non-binding but at least it is electing delegates to the district and state conventions. The district convention meets on April 21 and will pick 24 of the 49 available delegates while the remaining 25 are selected at the June 2 state convention.
So, for recap, Mr. Romney has 491 (443 confirmed) delegates while Mr. Santorum has 232 (182 confirmed). Newt and Uncle Ron are still out there but they are starting to fade further and further into the background. Mr. Romney has almost 43% of the delegates he needs to secure the win and geography and primary style suggest that he will do well in April. I don't think he will be able to win mathematically until June (depending on how he does in California) but I don't see a situation where he will lose his mantle of front-runner for the duration.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Awww... the Denver Broncos!
What? I think owning the Denver Broncos is pretty good.
*Sigh* Marge you just don't understand football.
Whispers are swirling that Petyon Manning's agent is hashing out a deal with the Denver Broncos. Denver has a good defense, but I hope they plan on adding some muscle to the offensive line or Mr. Manning is going to be on his back a lot.
Meanwhile, where does this leave Tim Tebow? Because the Denver ownership is so dead set against Mr. Tebow, they're almost certain to trade him. Jacksonville makes the most sense as Mr. Tebow is still a god in Florida and his style of play is more suited to that offense. The Jaguars do already have a first round pick that they've been working for the past year, but he might get included in some sort of trade deal. We shall have to see.
*Sigh* Marge you just don't understand football.
Whispers are swirling that Petyon Manning's agent is hashing out a deal with the Denver Broncos. Denver has a good defense, but I hope they plan on adding some muscle to the offensive line or Mr. Manning is going to be on his back a lot.
Meanwhile, where does this leave Tim Tebow? Because the Denver ownership is so dead set against Mr. Tebow, they're almost certain to trade him. Jacksonville makes the most sense as Mr. Tebow is still a god in Florida and his style of play is more suited to that offense. The Jaguars do already have a first round pick that they've been working for the past year, but he might get included in some sort of trade deal. We shall have to see.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Orchestral Zelda
This is what happens when video game nerds grow up and learn how to compose and play instruments well. Fun and amusing.
Sweater Vests in the South
In a minor upset, Mr. Santorum won both the Alabama and Mississippi primaries. Going in to the contests all polls showed things as being very tight, although Mr. Santorum had never shown a lead in Mississippi and hadn't registered a lead in Alabama since Wednesday (Alabama St. 3/7). Newt ended up being a very close second in Mississippi and a slightly less close second in Alabama. Mr. Romney finished a disappointing third in both contests (especially as CNN's initial exit polls showed him winning Mississippi).
Still, I can't imagine that Mr. Romney feels too bad as he won both Hawaii and American Samoa as expected. The final numbers are still being digested in both Alabama and Hawaii, but it appears that with these two wins and a strong showing (even at third place) in the South, Mr. Romney will take the most delegates from the day. Mr. Romney is currently holding 39 delegates for the night, while Mr. Santorum has 32 and Newt has 24. Uncle Ron did manage to snag 1 Hawaii delegate with 14 delegates still to be allocated (most of those from Alabama).
With his failure to actually win the states, the talk is starting to get louder that Newt is to withdraw from the field. I still think that is unlikely at the moment. Newt came very close to winning Mississippi and I don't believe that his ego will allow him to drop out until he has at least contested Missouri (this Saturday) and Louisiana (next Saturday). Still, expect the calls for Newt to withdraw and endorse Mr. Santorum to only get louder as the contest continues.
As noted above, the Missouri caucus is this Saturday. This time it won't be a cakewalk for Mr. Santorum as it was during the primary. Mr. Romney will actually be trying this time and Newt will be an option (unless he withdraws before Saturday). Puerto Rico in on Sunday and that is a true winner-take-all contest. Illinois follows on Tuesday (3/20) with Louisiana rounding it out for March next Saturday (3/24).
*UPDATE*
Hawaii has fully come in with 9 delegates for Mr. Romney, 5 delegates for Mr. Santorum, and 3 delegates for Uncle Ron. Alabama still has 9 delegates outstanding which I'm assuming are coming from three congressional districts where the vote is tight.
Overall totals are 470 (422 confirmed) for Mr. Romney, 226 (176) for Mr. Santorum, 150 (133) for Newt, and 72 (34) for Uncle Ron.
Still, I can't imagine that Mr. Romney feels too bad as he won both Hawaii and American Samoa as expected. The final numbers are still being digested in both Alabama and Hawaii, but it appears that with these two wins and a strong showing (even at third place) in the South, Mr. Romney will take the most delegates from the day. Mr. Romney is currently holding 39 delegates for the night, while Mr. Santorum has 32 and Newt has 24. Uncle Ron did manage to snag 1 Hawaii delegate with 14 delegates still to be allocated (most of those from Alabama).
With his failure to actually win the states, the talk is starting to get louder that Newt is to withdraw from the field. I still think that is unlikely at the moment. Newt came very close to winning Mississippi and I don't believe that his ego will allow him to drop out until he has at least contested Missouri (this Saturday) and Louisiana (next Saturday). Still, expect the calls for Newt to withdraw and endorse Mr. Santorum to only get louder as the contest continues.
As noted above, the Missouri caucus is this Saturday. This time it won't be a cakewalk for Mr. Santorum as it was during the primary. Mr. Romney will actually be trying this time and Newt will be an option (unless he withdraws before Saturday). Puerto Rico in on Sunday and that is a true winner-take-all contest. Illinois follows on Tuesday (3/20) with Louisiana rounding it out for March next Saturday (3/24).
*UPDATE*
Hawaii has fully come in with 9 delegates for Mr. Romney, 5 delegates for Mr. Santorum, and 3 delegates for Uncle Ron. Alabama still has 9 delegates outstanding which I'm assuming are coming from three congressional districts where the vote is tight.
Overall totals are 470 (422 confirmed) for Mr. Romney, 226 (176) for Mr. Santorum, 150 (133) for Newt, and 72 (34) for Uncle Ron.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
It's Good To Be In Dixie...
Mississippi and Alabama are counting votes right now. No projections are going to be made for a while as all three top candidates are shooting around 30%. CNN's exit polls are showing Mr. Romney with a slight lead in Mississippi while Mr. Santorum has a slight lead in Alabama. Newt finishing third in both states would be quite crippling to him. Whether he drops out or not remains to be seen.
Meanwhile there is also Hawaii and American Samoa. Mr. Romney is expected to win both easily.
*UPDATE*
Alabama has been called for Mr. Santorum. Mississippi has 90% of the vote in and Mr. Santorum is up by a little over 3,000 votes over Newt. A second place finish in both states should buoy Newt at least through Louisiana.
I'll see if I can get a delegate breakdown tomorrow.
Meanwhile there is also Hawaii and American Samoa. Mr. Romney is expected to win both easily.
*UPDATE*
Alabama has been called for Mr. Santorum. Mississippi has 90% of the vote in and Mr. Santorum is up by a little over 3,000 votes over Newt. A second place finish in both states should buoy Newt at least through Louisiana.
I'll see if I can get a delegate breakdown tomorrow.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Romney/Santorum Split
Over the weekend, Mr. Santorum won the Kansas Caucus decisively. Unfortunately for him, Kansas does not have the 50% winner take all threshold that many other states do. As such, he took 33 of the state's 40 delegates while Mr. Romney took the remaining 7.
Meanwhile, Mr. Romney took 7 of the 12 available county delegates in Wyoming, all 9 of the delegates from Guam, all 9 of the delegates from the Northern Marinaras, and 7 of the 9 available delegates from the US Virgin Islands.
In the end, Mr. Romney emerged from the weekend with 39 additional delegates. Mr. Santorum finished with 36 additional delegates, while Uncle Ron scratched together 2 additional delegates. This gives Mr. Romney a tentative total of 430 (382 confirmed) delegates while Mr. Santorum lags behind at 192 (142 confirmed). Newt is also still in play with 126 delegates (109 confirmed).
Tomorrow all eyes will be on the South. Hawaii and American Samoa hold caucuses but their delegate allocations are fairly small (20 and 9 respectively) and will be likely taken easily by Mr. Romney. Mississippi and Alabama will have 90 total delegates in play and the additional storyline of Newt's last stand. Newt is already crippled both in total delegate count and by the fact that finished third in Tennessee. If he fails to win either of the two southern contests, it puts the kibosh on his Southern strategy and effectively destroying any path he has to the nomination.
If Newt had run strong in the South, he could have walked in to the convention with a unified South and then tried to convince the Midwest and the Plains to break away and support him. But without a unified South, Newt will be left flapping in the wind. Now, if he loses, does that means that Newt will actually drop out is another story.
Meanwhile, Mr. Romney took 7 of the 12 available county delegates in Wyoming, all 9 of the delegates from Guam, all 9 of the delegates from the Northern Marinaras, and 7 of the 9 available delegates from the US Virgin Islands.
In the end, Mr. Romney emerged from the weekend with 39 additional delegates. Mr. Santorum finished with 36 additional delegates, while Uncle Ron scratched together 2 additional delegates. This gives Mr. Romney a tentative total of 430 (382 confirmed) delegates while Mr. Santorum lags behind at 192 (142 confirmed). Newt is also still in play with 126 delegates (109 confirmed).
Tomorrow all eyes will be on the South. Hawaii and American Samoa hold caucuses but their delegate allocations are fairly small (20 and 9 respectively) and will be likely taken easily by Mr. Romney. Mississippi and Alabama will have 90 total delegates in play and the additional storyline of Newt's last stand. Newt is already crippled both in total delegate count and by the fact that finished third in Tennessee. If he fails to win either of the two southern contests, it puts the kibosh on his Southern strategy and effectively destroying any path he has to the nomination.
If Newt had run strong in the South, he could have walked in to the convention with a unified South and then tried to convince the Midwest and the Plains to break away and support him. But without a unified South, Newt will be left flapping in the wind. Now, if he loses, does that means that Newt will actually drop out is another story.
Friday, March 09, 2012
O' Death
I'm not much for throat singing, but this is the first version of this song (which I'm quite fond of) that sings in response style. I can understand not singing fully in response when it is sung solo such as Ralph Stanley's version, but the song really is at its best when two voices play off of each other.
Wednesday, March 07, 2012
New Narratives
In the immediate aftermath of Super Tuesday, two narratives seem to be emerging.
The first is that although it is increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee, people (including his own supporters) are not very happy and grow increasingly fretful about how long this primary season is going to last. The main driver behind this seems to be how Mr. Romney is unable to win just about any of the areas that are seen as strong Republican areas (the South and rural areas).
Ohio presents a good example of this. If you compare the county breakdown of last night's primary, it looks very similar to a Republican vs. Democrat breakdown of the state. Romney won Cleveland, Youngstown, Columbus, Dayton, and Cincinnati, which are the areas that normally turn blue. He also won many of the suburban areas around these cities (which better than most Democrats do). Conversely, Mr. Santorum won all the rural areas and the poor working class areas (including Toledo for some reason). In the general election, no matter who the Republican nominee is, almost all the areas won by Mr. Santorum will be won by the Republican. A number of the areas won by Mr. Romney are going to be won by Mr. Obama, although heavy Republican turnout in these areas is going to be important. But the fact that this pattern is repeated in nearly all the states so far, is not giving people in the Republican party the warm fuzzies.
The second narrative that seems to be emerging is that Mr. Santorum's surrogates are close to screaming that it's time for Newt to get out. There is a fair argument for this. If Newt had not been in the race and 2/3 of his support had gone to Mr. Santorum and 1/3 to Mr. Romney (for ease of math), Mr. Santorum would have beaten Mr. Romney in Ohio by 45,000 votes and won Alaska by about 150 votes. He might have even won Georgia to say nothing of padding his vote totals in Tennessee and Oklahoma. Imagine what that would have done to the delegate totals.
Regardless, if Newt wants to stay in and someone is willing to bankroll him, he is free to do so.
Newt's last real argument for viability is coming up in a week. Alabama and Mississippi go to the polls on Tuesday (March 13) along with caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa. If Newt wins those two, it gives him more reason to stay in and say that he is the candidate of the South. If however, he loses those to Mr. Santorum or he syphons enough votes away that Mr. Romney wins and he finishes third, it will be very difficult to justify staying in without admitting that he is dividing the "Not-Romney" vote. He may not care about that and that's his prerogative. We'll just have to wait and see there.
Meanwhile the next contests will be fairly quiet ones. Kansas holds a binding caucus (40 delegates) and Wyoming will officially settle on the allocation of their first 12 delegates at the county conventions. There will also be caucuses in the territories of Guam, Northern Marianas, and Virgin Islands. Each of the territories gets 9 delegates.
The first is that although it is increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee, people (including his own supporters) are not very happy and grow increasingly fretful about how long this primary season is going to last. The main driver behind this seems to be how Mr. Romney is unable to win just about any of the areas that are seen as strong Republican areas (the South and rural areas).
Ohio presents a good example of this. If you compare the county breakdown of last night's primary, it looks very similar to a Republican vs. Democrat breakdown of the state. Romney won Cleveland, Youngstown, Columbus, Dayton, and Cincinnati, which are the areas that normally turn blue. He also won many of the suburban areas around these cities (which better than most Democrats do). Conversely, Mr. Santorum won all the rural areas and the poor working class areas (including Toledo for some reason). In the general election, no matter who the Republican nominee is, almost all the areas won by Mr. Santorum will be won by the Republican. A number of the areas won by Mr. Romney are going to be won by Mr. Obama, although heavy Republican turnout in these areas is going to be important. But the fact that this pattern is repeated in nearly all the states so far, is not giving people in the Republican party the warm fuzzies.
The second narrative that seems to be emerging is that Mr. Santorum's surrogates are close to screaming that it's time for Newt to get out. There is a fair argument for this. If Newt had not been in the race and 2/3 of his support had gone to Mr. Santorum and 1/3 to Mr. Romney (for ease of math), Mr. Santorum would have beaten Mr. Romney in Ohio by 45,000 votes and won Alaska by about 150 votes. He might have even won Georgia to say nothing of padding his vote totals in Tennessee and Oklahoma. Imagine what that would have done to the delegate totals.
Regardless, if Newt wants to stay in and someone is willing to bankroll him, he is free to do so.
Newt's last real argument for viability is coming up in a week. Alabama and Mississippi go to the polls on Tuesday (March 13) along with caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa. If Newt wins those two, it gives him more reason to stay in and say that he is the candidate of the South. If however, he loses those to Mr. Santorum or he syphons enough votes away that Mr. Romney wins and he finishes third, it will be very difficult to justify staying in without admitting that he is dividing the "Not-Romney" vote. He may not care about that and that's his prerogative. We'll just have to wait and see there.
Meanwhile the next contests will be fairly quiet ones. Kansas holds a binding caucus (40 delegates) and Wyoming will officially settle on the allocation of their first 12 delegates at the county conventions. There will also be caucuses in the territories of Guam, Northern Marianas, and Virgin Islands. Each of the territories gets 9 delegates.
Super Tuesday Post Mortem
In the end it was a good night for Mr. Romney. Not a great night, but a good night. The seven contests I predicted all went as expected, although things ended up being closer than I expected in both Virginia and Vermont. He made up for that by winning all three of the toss up contests.
Ohio sat in the Santorum column most of the night, but Hamilton and Cuyahoga counties kept sitting out there. When they finally came in near the end of the night, it completely erased Mr. Santorum's 15,000 vote lead and catapulted Mr. Romney to a 12,000 vote win.
Idaho turned out to be a laugher. Mr. Santorum and Uncle Ron hung in and did manage to win 13 counties, but the Idaho rules stipulate that if any candidate gets over 50% of the delegates, he wins them all. So Mr. Romney swept Idaho and all 32 delegates.
Alaska was closer and there are no special rules there. The delegates will be allotted proportionately, giving Mr. Romney 8, Mr. Santorum 7, Uncle Ron 6, and Newt 3.
The results are still being digested in some states so the full delegate total updates won't be ready for a little while yet. At the moment, it appears that Mr. Romney has picked up 196 delegates, Mr. Santorum has picked up 80 delegates, Newt has picked up 72 delegates, and Uncle Ron has picked up 21 delegates. These allotments will change a little bit as the breakdowns per Congressional District clarified.
On a side note, Marcy Kaptur defeated Dennis Kucinich in OH-9. Also my old congresswoman, Jean Schmidt, lost her primary race to Brad Wenstrup in OH-2. He'll likely face off against David Smith, also a newcomer to the race.
Ohio sat in the Santorum column most of the night, but Hamilton and Cuyahoga counties kept sitting out there. When they finally came in near the end of the night, it completely erased Mr. Santorum's 15,000 vote lead and catapulted Mr. Romney to a 12,000 vote win.
Idaho turned out to be a laugher. Mr. Santorum and Uncle Ron hung in and did manage to win 13 counties, but the Idaho rules stipulate that if any candidate gets over 50% of the delegates, he wins them all. So Mr. Romney swept Idaho and all 32 delegates.
Alaska was closer and there are no special rules there. The delegates will be allotted proportionately, giving Mr. Romney 8, Mr. Santorum 7, Uncle Ron 6, and Newt 3.
The results are still being digested in some states so the full delegate total updates won't be ready for a little while yet. At the moment, it appears that Mr. Romney has picked up 196 delegates, Mr. Santorum has picked up 80 delegates, Newt has picked up 72 delegates, and Uncle Ron has picked up 21 delegates. These allotments will change a little bit as the breakdowns per Congressional District clarified.
On a side note, Marcy Kaptur defeated Dennis Kucinich in OH-9. Also my old congresswoman, Jean Schmidt, lost her primary race to Brad Wenstrup in OH-2. He'll likely face off against David Smith, also a newcomer to the race.
Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Super Tuesday
10:40 PM - I'm off to bed. Santorum's lead is down to 7,000 votes with 79% reporting. God only knows how long it'll be before Idaho and Alaska are reported. Alaska polls close at midnight.
10:30 PM - Hamilton county is reporting what should be a nearly 6,000 vote gain for Romney once everything is added. Cuyahoga may do the same. If that holds, it'll come down to little bits still reporting in other counties. It may be well after midnight before Ohio is called.
10:20 PM - Romney dominating Idaho in the early counting. 30% Mormon turnout indeed. Santorum's lead is about 15,000 in Ohio with 70% of the vote in. It's starting to get tight for Romney to make that up.
10:06 PM - North Dakota called for Santorum.
9:50 PM - With about 50% of the caucuses counted, Santorum is up by about 700 votes over Uncle Ron in North Dakota. He's up by 15,000 in Ohio with 46% of the vote but Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Franklin counties have not reported much yet.
9:30 PM - I'm very surprised to see that with 80% of the vote counted, Romney is beating Santorum in Warren County by nearly 2,000 votes. Meanwhile the Odas are both winning their races here. I'm mildly disappointed by that.
8:45 PM - I just got back from the store. Vermont and Massachusetts have been called for Mr. Romney. Oklahoma and Tennessee have been called for Mr. Santorum.
7:30 PM - How many times can Wolf Blitzer say Ohio in one minute? Too close to call, no surprise.
7:15 PM - Georgia called for Newt. Mr. Romney takes Virginia, although it took a few minutes. Uncle Ron is running stronger than expected there. Vermont is strangely close as both Uncle Ron and Mr. Santorum are fighting it out. Vermont might just be weird enough to put Uncle Ron over the top here.
4:15 PM - Voted. I was #111. Not bad turnout for my precinct.
11:30 AM - In addition to the Presidential Primary, there are a few Congressional Primaries to watch. Probably the most interesting here in Ohio is for OH-9, pitting incumbent Marcy Kaptur (Toledo) against Dennis Kucinich (Cleveland). Although nominal allies, this race has been down and dirty.
One particular ad hit Mr. Kucinich hard. When he first thought he would lose his district, Mr. Kucinich took a few trips to Washington State and even looked into moving there and running for one of Washington's new districts (they gained one district). Ms. Kaptur took this bit and paired Mr. Kucinich up with Art Modell and LeBron James as Ohioans who cut and run to make their fortunes elsewhere. Nasty, but effective.
Geography would seem to favor Ms. Kaptur laying everything else aside. The district contains most of Toledo, the entire lakefront, and only the western sections of Cleveland. Most of Mr. Kucinich's old district was folded into Marcia Fudge's 11th district, leaving him without much of his old support. I'll be curious to see how this one turns out.
6:50 AM - Today's the day that Mr. Romney either relegates his rivals to the second tier or has them come back up and bite his heels. Polls closings are as follows:
Georgia - 7:00 EST
Vermont - 7:00 EST
Virginia - 7:00 EST
Ohio - 7:30 EST
Oklahoma - 7:00 CST (8:00 EST)
Massachusetts - 8:00 EST
Tennessee - 8:00 EST
North Dakota - 9:00 CST (10:00 EST)
Alaska - caucuses begin at 7:30 AKST (11:30 EST)
Idaho - no closing time given for caucuses
10:30 PM - Hamilton county is reporting what should be a nearly 6,000 vote gain for Romney once everything is added. Cuyahoga may do the same. If that holds, it'll come down to little bits still reporting in other counties. It may be well after midnight before Ohio is called.
10:20 PM - Romney dominating Idaho in the early counting. 30% Mormon turnout indeed. Santorum's lead is about 15,000 in Ohio with 70% of the vote in. It's starting to get tight for Romney to make that up.
10:06 PM - North Dakota called for Santorum.
9:50 PM - With about 50% of the caucuses counted, Santorum is up by about 700 votes over Uncle Ron in North Dakota. He's up by 15,000 in Ohio with 46% of the vote but Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Franklin counties have not reported much yet.
9:30 PM - I'm very surprised to see that with 80% of the vote counted, Romney is beating Santorum in Warren County by nearly 2,000 votes. Meanwhile the Odas are both winning their races here. I'm mildly disappointed by that.
8:45 PM - I just got back from the store. Vermont and Massachusetts have been called for Mr. Romney. Oklahoma and Tennessee have been called for Mr. Santorum.
7:30 PM - How many times can Wolf Blitzer say Ohio in one minute? Too close to call, no surprise.
7:15 PM - Georgia called for Newt. Mr. Romney takes Virginia, although it took a few minutes. Uncle Ron is running stronger than expected there. Vermont is strangely close as both Uncle Ron and Mr. Santorum are fighting it out. Vermont might just be weird enough to put Uncle Ron over the top here.
4:15 PM - Voted. I was #111. Not bad turnout for my precinct.
11:30 AM - In addition to the Presidential Primary, there are a few Congressional Primaries to watch. Probably the most interesting here in Ohio is for OH-9, pitting incumbent Marcy Kaptur (Toledo) against Dennis Kucinich (Cleveland). Although nominal allies, this race has been down and dirty.
One particular ad hit Mr. Kucinich hard. When he first thought he would lose his district, Mr. Kucinich took a few trips to Washington State and even looked into moving there and running for one of Washington's new districts (they gained one district). Ms. Kaptur took this bit and paired Mr. Kucinich up with Art Modell and LeBron James as Ohioans who cut and run to make their fortunes elsewhere. Nasty, but effective.
Geography would seem to favor Ms. Kaptur laying everything else aside. The district contains most of Toledo, the entire lakefront, and only the western sections of Cleveland. Most of Mr. Kucinich's old district was folded into Marcia Fudge's 11th district, leaving him without much of his old support. I'll be curious to see how this one turns out.
6:50 AM - Today's the day that Mr. Romney either relegates his rivals to the second tier or has them come back up and bite his heels. Polls closings are as follows:
Georgia - 7:00 EST
Vermont - 7:00 EST
Virginia - 7:00 EST
Ohio - 7:30 EST
Oklahoma - 7:00 CST (8:00 EST)
Massachusetts - 8:00 EST
Tennessee - 8:00 EST
North Dakota - 9:00 CST (10:00 EST)
Alaska - caucuses begin at 7:30 AKST (11:30 EST)
Idaho - no closing time given for caucuses
Monday, March 05, 2012
Romney Wins Washington (State)
Fueled by the wins in Arizona and Michigan, Mitt Romney won the Washington Caucuses on Saturday. He topped Uncle Ron by thirteen points (38-25), while Rick Santorum (who had been leading the Washington polls for a while) fell to third with 24%. These caucuses are non-binding so it doesn't mean much in terms of actual delegates (who won't be allotted until June). But it does help with perception. Mr. Romney has now not lost a contest since Mr. Santorum's three state back in the middle of February.
So now we wait for Super Tuesday. Polls continue to narrow in Ohio, now showing Mr. Santorum leading Mr. Romney by only two points. Mr. Romney is ahead in those people that have already voted, but only by 4 points and early voting has been very light this year. Still, it's always nice to start with a lead and if momentum can carry you, starting ahead by an extra step won't hurt either.
So now we wait for Super Tuesday. Polls continue to narrow in Ohio, now showing Mr. Santorum leading Mr. Romney by only two points. Mr. Romney is ahead in those people that have already voted, but only by 4 points and early voting has been very light this year. Still, it's always nice to start with a lead and if momentum can carry you, starting ahead by an extra step won't hurt either.
Friday, March 02, 2012
Super Tuesday Handicapping
This year, Super Tuesday has ten states all going to the polls or holding caucuses. One would like to think that the playing field is level, but in reality, the outcome of certain states is probably pretty obvious. We'll go through each state and have a look at what we should expect.
Alaska (27) - I can honestly say that I have no idea what will happen here. The re-election of Senator Murkowski two years ago suggests that there might be a strong Romney presence. But you also have the strong independent streak that might favor Santorum or Newt. I'm going to punt on this one.
Idaho (32) - This will similar to other Mountain West contests in that it will pit Romney and Santorum head-to-head with Uncle Ron playing spoiler. I think the Mormon vote (which could be as large as 30% of the electorate) along the Utah border and the slightly more liberal areas around Boise will go for Mr. Romney while the interior areas favor Mr. Santorum. As with the rest of the Rocky states, Uncle Ron will syphon off a number of votes (probably from both candidates). I think Mr. Romney has a slight edge but the delegate split is likely to be close to 50-50 given the way that Idaho elects their delegates.
North Dakota (28) - We've not had a true plain states contest yet so the closest you can compare it to would be western Minnesota and western Iowa. In both those contests, Mr. Santorum did very well. I would expect him to take North Dakota.
Oklahoma (43) - Limited polling (taken before the debate on the 22nd) showed Mr. Santorum with a large lead. I doubt the results in Michigan will affect that lead much. Mr. Santorum's social issue platform plays well in this very conservative state so I would expect a strong Santorum win here.
Georgia (76) - Newt's home state and he should win easily here. Despite a natural homefield, Newt has spent a reasonable amount of time campaigning here. That is reflected in his 15-point lead in the polls. However, the fact that Newt has spent so much time here (where he shouldn't have to) suggests that he is not going to be much of a factor elsewhere.
Tennessee (58) - This is a prime example of the problem that Georgia showed. What limited polling has been done shows that Mr. Santorum holds nearly a 2-1 advantage over Mr. Romney. Newt is sitting back in 3rd place, having just managed to crawl out of 4th place. The campaign could change things, but I still expect Mr. Santorum to win Tennessee easily.
Virginia (49) - Only Mr. Romney and Uncle Ron are on the ballot. Mr. Romney may win every county in Virginia and should win close to all the delegates overall.
Massachusetts (41) - Despite all the hot air over Michigan, this is actually Mr. Romney's home state. He should win handily here. The only real problem he has is how the delegates are divided. As long as one of his opponents clears 20%, he'll lose out on about 1/3 of the delegates despite crushing his opposition.
Vermont (17) - Again Mr. Romney should win Vermont easily. If he can clear 50% of the total vote, he'll take all the delegates there.
Ohio (66) - I've saved Ohio for last for several reasons. First, I live in Ohio and like to talk most about it. Second, although being second in total number of available delegates (to Georgia) it is viewed as the most open of all the campaigns and could see some wild swings. Virginia might have held this role if Mr. Santorum had gotten on the ballot there, but he didn't.
The natural demographics of Ohio favor Mr. Santorum, especially if Newt continues to be seen as an also ran. Unlike Michigan, there aren't a whole lot of districts packed into a single city so there won't be a way to snag a whole lot of delegates in a tight area. Mr. Romney will probably win the more urban areas of Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo, but that won't buy him much in terms of delegate haul. More to his advantage is the fact that Mr. Santorum didn't file a slate of delegates in three congressional districts (6, 9, and 13). CD 9 is the lake front from Toledo to Cleveland and 13 is the area between Youngstown and Akron. I would expect Mr. Romney to do better in these areas anyway but why give your opponent a free ride? The loss of delegates in CD 6 is an even bigger unforced error. This is the rural, mountainous area bordering West Virginia and Kentucky. Most voters here are poor, working class folks and tend to be more conservative Democrats. These are the people that Mr. Romney is having a very hard time capturing and would have been an easy win for Mr. Santorum. He may end up winning this area (allowing him to contribute to the statewide vote) on the overall vote, but the voters would have to go to their second choice candidate for the actual CD delegates.
Recaping, I would say that Mr. Romney has three guaranteed wins (VT, MA, VA) with a potential for at least three more (ID, AK, OH). Mr. Santorum is looking at three strong possible wins (ND, OK, TN) with the same three states being more questionable. Newt's only real play is Georgia and a prayer that he breaks into second place in some of the other states.
Alaska (27) - I can honestly say that I have no idea what will happen here. The re-election of Senator Murkowski two years ago suggests that there might be a strong Romney presence. But you also have the strong independent streak that might favor Santorum or Newt. I'm going to punt on this one.
Idaho (32) - This will similar to other Mountain West contests in that it will pit Romney and Santorum head-to-head with Uncle Ron playing spoiler. I think the Mormon vote (which could be as large as 30% of the electorate) along the Utah border and the slightly more liberal areas around Boise will go for Mr. Romney while the interior areas favor Mr. Santorum. As with the rest of the Rocky states, Uncle Ron will syphon off a number of votes (probably from both candidates). I think Mr. Romney has a slight edge but the delegate split is likely to be close to 50-50 given the way that Idaho elects their delegates.
North Dakota (28) - We've not had a true plain states contest yet so the closest you can compare it to would be western Minnesota and western Iowa. In both those contests, Mr. Santorum did very well. I would expect him to take North Dakota.
Oklahoma (43) - Limited polling (taken before the debate on the 22nd) showed Mr. Santorum with a large lead. I doubt the results in Michigan will affect that lead much. Mr. Santorum's social issue platform plays well in this very conservative state so I would expect a strong Santorum win here.
Georgia (76) - Newt's home state and he should win easily here. Despite a natural homefield, Newt has spent a reasonable amount of time campaigning here. That is reflected in his 15-point lead in the polls. However, the fact that Newt has spent so much time here (where he shouldn't have to) suggests that he is not going to be much of a factor elsewhere.
Tennessee (58) - This is a prime example of the problem that Georgia showed. What limited polling has been done shows that Mr. Santorum holds nearly a 2-1 advantage over Mr. Romney. Newt is sitting back in 3rd place, having just managed to crawl out of 4th place. The campaign could change things, but I still expect Mr. Santorum to win Tennessee easily.
Virginia (49) - Only Mr. Romney and Uncle Ron are on the ballot. Mr. Romney may win every county in Virginia and should win close to all the delegates overall.
Massachusetts (41) - Despite all the hot air over Michigan, this is actually Mr. Romney's home state. He should win handily here. The only real problem he has is how the delegates are divided. As long as one of his opponents clears 20%, he'll lose out on about 1/3 of the delegates despite crushing his opposition.
Vermont (17) - Again Mr. Romney should win Vermont easily. If he can clear 50% of the total vote, he'll take all the delegates there.
Ohio (66) - I've saved Ohio for last for several reasons. First, I live in Ohio and like to talk most about it. Second, although being second in total number of available delegates (to Georgia) it is viewed as the most open of all the campaigns and could see some wild swings. Virginia might have held this role if Mr. Santorum had gotten on the ballot there, but he didn't.
The natural demographics of Ohio favor Mr. Santorum, especially if Newt continues to be seen as an also ran. Unlike Michigan, there aren't a whole lot of districts packed into a single city so there won't be a way to snag a whole lot of delegates in a tight area. Mr. Romney will probably win the more urban areas of Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo, but that won't buy him much in terms of delegate haul. More to his advantage is the fact that Mr. Santorum didn't file a slate of delegates in three congressional districts (6, 9, and 13). CD 9 is the lake front from Toledo to Cleveland and 13 is the area between Youngstown and Akron. I would expect Mr. Romney to do better in these areas anyway but why give your opponent a free ride? The loss of delegates in CD 6 is an even bigger unforced error. This is the rural, mountainous area bordering West Virginia and Kentucky. Most voters here are poor, working class folks and tend to be more conservative Democrats. These are the people that Mr. Romney is having a very hard time capturing and would have been an easy win for Mr. Santorum. He may end up winning this area (allowing him to contribute to the statewide vote) on the overall vote, but the voters would have to go to their second choice candidate for the actual CD delegates.
Recaping, I would say that Mr. Romney has three guaranteed wins (VT, MA, VA) with a potential for at least three more (ID, AK, OH). Mr. Santorum is looking at three strong possible wins (ND, OK, TN) with the same three states being more questionable. Newt's only real play is Georgia and a prayer that he breaks into second place in some of the other states.
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