Wednesday, November 25, 2009

The First Thanksgiving

As it is about Thanksgiving, I thought I would talk about the first Thanksgiving.

The Pilgrims landed at Plymouth in November 1620. They settled in a patch of land that had previously been a Native American settlement but that had been wiped out due to disease. The Pilgrims tried to work the land but winter was rolling in and they could do nothing but try to trap a few animals, gather winter fruit, and consume the supplies from the Mayflower. According to the original plan drawn up in the Mayflower Compact, everything was shared equally. However, many of the Pilgrims died due to malnourishment over the winter.

In the Spring, the Pilgrims were approached by a tribe of Native Americans living nearby. They had as one of their guests, Squanto, one of the only survivors of the tribe whose land the Pilgrims now lived upon. Squanto had been held as a slave in England for several years and spoke English well. Being familiar with the advanced technology of the Europeans, Squanto convinced his host tribe to assist the Pilgrims to earn their trust and then use them as leverage in the power play with neighboring tribes.

The Pilgrims used the farming and hunting techniques taught to them by the Natives, but Governor Bradford found that they were still not accumulating enough food to last through the next Winter. At that time, the Pilgrims worked the land commonly and were to store all food in a common grainary that would be distributed equally. Bradford saw that many of the young men were not working or were working a bare minimum because they didn't want to exhaust themselves when it did not directly benefit their own families.

Bradford called a meeting and changed the Compact. He took all the common land and distributed a plot to each family. They were to work it and they were to be dependent on that plot. Should they not produce enough food, they would be required to live on their neighbor's charity, but there would be no obligation to share and no common grainary available.

Faced with this promise and threat, the Pilgrim men threw themselves into the land and production exploded. In that first full year, the Pilgrims produced both enough to feed themselve and send a surplus back to England to be sold and pay off their creditors who had financed their voyage.

In October, Governor Bradford called for a day of Thanksgiving in a model of the old Harvest Home celebration. The Pilgrims invited the members of the Native tribe to the feast, not only to share the bounty with those who had aided them, but also to work in converting the Natives to Christianity.

Much of this story get's truncated and it is important to recognize all factors (good and bad) that went into setting up the holidays we practice today.

Monday, November 23, 2009

First BCS Projections

Our match-ups to determine the BCS representatives are all set.

Big 10: Ohio St. has won the conference and is slated to go to the Rose Bowl
Pac 10: Oregon and Oregon St. will decide the title on the field on Dec. 3
Big 12: Texas plays Nebraska for the title on Dec. 5
ACC: Georgia Tech will face off against Clemson in the ACC title game on Dec. 5
Big East: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh on Dec. 5 will decide the title
SEC: Florida and Alabama square off on Dec. 5

The shake down from this is that similar to what I posted before. The winner of Florida-Alabama will go to the National Title game while the loser goes to the Sugar Bowl. Squaring off for the title will most likely be Texas assuming Texas beats Texas A&M and Nebraska (neither opponent is as good as Texas).

TCU and Boise St. are still undefeated and will probably remain that way. TCU finishes it's season on Nov. 28 and Boise St. has Nevada on Nov. 27 and New Mexico St. on Dec. 5. At the moment I would expect TCU to go to the Fiesta Bowl and Boise St. go to the Sugar. If Texas loses though, TCU could vault ahead to go to the Title game.

ACC and Big East winners are still slated for the Orange Bowl. Should UC beat Pitt, they have an outside shot at the National Title game if both Texas and TCU lose, but that is rather unlikely. That just leaves the at-larges. With USC falling out, I think odds have gone up that the Fiesta Bowl, after taking TCU to replace Texas, will step on the Rose Bowl's toes and take Ohio St. Orange takes ACC vs. Big East, while the Sugar takes Boise St. In that scenario, I would expect the Rose Bowl to take Iowa, both to preserve Big 10 vs. Pac 10, but also in that Iowa would be the next highest BCS team available (the loser of UC-Pitt would probably fall below Iowa).

As such, my bowl projections at the moment are:
National Title: Florida vs. Texas
Fiesta: Ohio St. vs. TCU
Orange: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar: Alabama vs. Boise St.
Rose: Oregon vs. Iowa

In the AFC, Indianapolis further cemented their hold on the #1 seed as they now have a 3-game lead on Cincinnati. San Diego is breathing down the Bengals neck at the #3 spot as is New England (#4). All are 7-3 with the divisional records acting as tiebreaker at the moment (5-0, 4-1, and 3-1 respectively). Cincinnati and San Diego play each other in week 15 and should the two teams finish with the same record, that will be the tiebreaker.

The AFC wild cards contenders are Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Denver; all at 6-4. If Houston wins tonight, they will also be 6-4. Jacksonville earns the #5 seed by virtue of their conference record (5-2). Pittsburgh currently earns the #6 by virtue of their head-to-head win against Denver. Should Houston win tonight, Denver earns the #6 seed as Pittsburgh has a worse conference record among the three teams, knocking them out, and Denver has a better divisional record than Houston.

For the NFC, New Orleans and Minnesota are sitting happy in the #1 and #2 seeds. Dallas and Arizona hold the #3 and #4 seeds with Dallas having a better conference record giving them the tiebreak. Philadelphia, Green Bay and the NY Giants are all at 6-4. Conference record gives (as well as a head-to-head match-up) gives the Eagles the #5 and the Packers the #6 at the moment.

New Orleans, Minnesota, and Arizona are all but in now and the remaining games will decide seeding. The East is still open and both Green Bay and Atlanta still have decent shots at the wild card.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Football Shifts

This weekend cleared things up a bit on the football schedule. Some of my comments that I made on on Friday came true. Some did not. Let's examine:

SEC - Still Florida vs. Alabama and both are still undefeated. SEC Title game is Dec. 5.

Big-10 - Ohio St. won the BCS berth.

ACC - Georgia Tech won the Coastal division. Clemson is slugging it out with Boston College. Clemson needs to win against Virgina to lock the Atlantic division. ACC Title game is Dec. 5.

Big East - Pittsburgh and Cincinnati still unbeaten in the division. Even if Pitt loses to West Virginia on Nov. 27, the division will be decided in the game between UC and Pitt on Dec. 5.

Big-12 - Texas will lock the South division when it defeats Baylor this weekend. Kansas St. lost while Nebraska won so Nebraska vaults into first place in the North. The match-up between the two teams this weekend will decide the North division and the right to face Texas on Dec. 5.

Pac-10 - Stanford's defeat of USC this past weekend actually put more pressure on Oregon. Oregon now has sole possession of first place thanks to Cal's defeat of Arizona, but Stanford vaulted into second place and Stanford has beaten Oregon head to head. Meanwhile, Oregon St. is sitting back in third place. If Oregon loses either to Arizona or Oregon St., Stanford vaults ahead of them. If Oregon loses to Oregon St., Oregon St. vaults ahead of them and Stanford as they beat Stanford. So the Pac-10 crown will likely be hanging on the result of the Civil War.

Outside of the divisions, TCU and Boise St. both won and retained their BCS #4 and #6 rankings respectively. However, USC lost and dropped completely out of the BCS picture. LSU would be the natural choice to replace them, but again, only two teams from each conference are allowed.

If they remain unbeaten against Colorado and Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. has a good chance to make it. However, they could also lose that place to Penn St. or Iowa, due to higher name recognition (especially if Ohio St. gets nabbed early and the Rose Bowl is left with an at-large pick).

In the NFL, on the AFC side, Indianapolis further cemented their hold on the #1 seed while Cincinnati took over the #2 seed from Denver. Denver could actually lose the divisional lead if they lose to San Diego. Currently Denver and New England are holding the #3 and #4 seeds but these will be in flux. Pittsburgh and San Diego are in possession of the #5 and #6 seeds with Houston and Jacksonville lurking on the outside at 5-4. Given the schedules, I think the only current playoff qualifier that is in danger is Denver. I think they will lose the divisional lead to San Diego and then they will be in the scrum with Houston and Jacksonville for that last spot. New England and Indy are too far ahead in their divisions to be in any danger and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have enough cupcakes on their schedule that they should finish in the 11-5 area.

Over on the NFC side, New Orleans and Minnesota are sitting very pretty in the #1 and #2 spots respectively. Despite their loss, Dallas still holds the NFC East lead and is contending with Arizona for the #3 seed. Arizona is in no danger of losing their division, which leaves the NFC East as the only division that is still competitive. The wild card is a hot mess as Atlanta, Green Bay, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants are all at 5-4. Carolina, San Francisco, and Chicago are also not out of the wild card hunt at 4-5 as well.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Bowl Considerations

The Big-10 only has two games left in the season and the rest of the league has three (not including championships for the Big 12, SEC, and ACC). So I figured to look at the BCS bowls and see how things were shaking out.

Big-10: Ohio St. and Iowa are currently tied with one loss in conference. Ohio St. has a non-conference loss so technically Iowa has the tiebreaker. But they play each other this weekend. The winner will win the Big 10 outright as even with a loss the following week, the winner would have the tiebreaker over both the other and Penn St. Iowa's quarterback was injured in their loss to Northwestern and they are travelling to Columbus so I'm thinking Ohio St. has the advantage.

Pac-10: In the Pac-10, Oregon and Arizona are tied, although Oregon is ranked higher. They play each other in two weeks, although if Arizona wins, they still have to play USC. If USC beat Arizona, and Oregon won out, Oregon would win by virtue of their head-to-head win against USC. Either way, Oregon is the favorite at the moment to go to the Rose Bowl.

ACC: Georgia Tech is running away with the ACC South. Clemson is leading the ACC North but BC is still in the hunt. Clemson has the head-to-head tiebreaker so Clemson actually has a two game lead. Anything can happen in a title game, but I would favor Georgia Tech in a match-up with Clemson.

Big East: Cincinnati is currently tied for the Big East lead with Pittsburgh, although Pittsburgh has a non-conference loss which gives UC the tiebreaker at the moment. But, both teams will play each other in the last game of the season (Dec 5) so the winner will be clearly defined.

Big-12: Texas has effectively locked up the Big-12 South crown as they would have to lose two of their last three (Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M) to give Oklahoma St. even a shot. I don't see that happening. Kansas St. is leading the Big-12 North, although Nebraska is only a half game behind them. They play each other on Nov. 21, which will be K-state's last game of the season. Either way, whether Nebraska or Kansas St., I would look for Texas to win the Big-12 Championship game.

SEC: Alabama and Florida have already won their respective divisions and will meet for the title game on Dec 5.

As far as the actual BCS bowl games, that gets tricky. The Rose Bowl will host the National Championship game this year and assuming that things go as they are expected, it will be the SEC title winner vs. Texas. That will give the Sugar Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl a free pick. I'm sure the Sugar Bowl will take the SEC title game loser, but the Fiesta Bowl may be interested in snagging Ohio St. away from the Rose Bowl, given Ohio St.'s popularity with that Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl would then get the follow up pick and may be very interested in taking TCU (assuming they stay unbeaten).

The Orange Bowl would then get the next two picks. They automatically get the ACC winner and will probably go for the traditional Big East winner (especially if UC is undefeated, although I don't think they would have a problem with a 1-loss Pittsburgh).

The Sugar Bowl is next. Having already taken the SEC title loser, the Sugar Bowl might opt for Boise St. Per the BCS rules, no conference can have more than 2 teams in the five BCS games and the top six teams in the BCS rankings get automatic berths unless this rule is violated or spots run out. TCU is currently no. 4 and Boise St. is no. 6. Assuming these two teams stay undefeated, they will have to go to a BCS bowl. With TCU going to the Fiesta Bowl, Boise St. would be an interesting option. However, it is also possible that the Sugar Bowl will turn it's nose up on Boise St. and give it's open spot to USC (especially if USC wins out but doesn't win the Pac-10).

If that happens, Boise St. would have to go to the Rose Bowl and play the Pac-10 winner. If the Sugar Bowl opted to take Boise St., the Rose Bowl would get the Pac-10 winner and a free at large pick. LSU is out because the SEC would already have two entries. If they win their last two games, the Rose Bowl might take Penn St., keeping the Pac-10 vs. Big-10 rivalry alive. This is especially true if the Rose Bowl is comparing a potential 10-2 Penn St. and a 10-2 Miami (Fl). Under no circumstances would the Rose Bowl consider USC as an all Pac-10 match-up would be horrible for them.

We also cannot rule out the possibility that the Fiesta Bowl would grab USC instead of Ohio St. to play TCU. If that happened, the Sugar Bowl would probably step on the Rose Bowl's toes and take Ohio St., leaving the Rose Bowl with the Pac-10 winner and Boise St.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2010

The Politico posted their opinion of the 10 most interesting races for 2010. All of these races are far too early to speculate about, although since some of them are more interesting from a primary standpoint (Rubio vs. Crist) they will get hot soon. However, as I am a political junkie, I figured I would look at the one race that will actually impact me next year: Ohio's Governor's race.

What was going to be a bit more complicated at first, has already shaken out to a more simple equation. Ted Strickland (D) is the incumbent governor and will not face any primary challengers. It had looked like there might be several Republican challengers but most have already dropped out leaving the way almost completely clear for Former Rep. John Kasich.

Polling at this point is essentially meaningless, although Rasmussen did run a poll back in September showing Mr. Kasich with a 1-point lead. All other polling done has shown Mr. Strickland with a lead over the Republican opponent.

Under normal circumstances, I would expect Mr. Strickland to cruise to victory. Ohio has had some tough times, but they are tied into the country as a whole and I haven't seen or heard of anything that has shown any significant anger at the governor. However, these are not normal times. Independents did swing against the incumbent Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey. What's more, the lack of a Presidential contest tends to leave the party in power less motivated to come out and vote. Throw that in with an expected attack by Mr. Kasich that Mr. Strickland has done nothing to keep jobs in Ohio and you are left with some nasty drains against Mr. Strickland's natural popularity.

Many will try to read what happens in this race as some sort of national referendum on the system (so goes Ohio, so goes the US). It might or it might not. We won't know for a while but it's one of many races that I'll let ping my radar.

Update: Quinnipiac has a new poll showing Strickland and Kasich tied at 40.

Friday, November 06, 2009

Reading Tea Leaves

The fact that I've let three days go by after an election without posting some commentary should give you an idea as to how busy I've been. But I've got a little lull on a Friday and I might as well post my thoughts.

There has been wicked spin on both sides as to what the results of Tuesday's election's meant. Obviously it was a good night for Republicans but I wouldn't call it the major smackdown of Mr. Obama that the Right is portraying it as. Likewise the Democratic wins in NY-23 and CA-10 do not demonstrate the the Republicans are devolving into a civil war between Conservatives and liberal Republicans. The easiest way to look at things is to take each race one by one.

VA Gov. - This is probably the easiest one to spin as a rebuke of current Democratic policies. Yes, Mr. Deeds was not the best candidate and Mr. McDonnall was already pulling ahead by the time Mr. Deeds told Mr. Obama to shove off; but, the fact that Lt. Gov. and AG were also won by Republicans with similar margins speaks to general disenchantment as a whole. It is also important to remember that unemployment is not as bad in Virginia as it is in other states so there was probably less general disenchantment with the status quo than there would be in a state like Ohio.

NJ Gov. - The Right wants to spin this one badly as a major rebuke of Mr. Obama. He stopped in NJ to campaign for Gov. Corzine at least five times and many key aspects of his campaign were being called from the White House. However, it is also important to remember that Mr. Corzine is extremely corrupt (and that's saying something for New Jersey) as well as a general jerk. Mr. Christie isn't exactly the winningest personality but his interview with Don Imus softened him up a bit to make him more palatable to voters. In general, it was a case where people who didn't like Mr. Corzine went to vote for Mr. Christie, but people who didn't like Mr. Christie didn't go to vote for Mr. Corzine. Result: the first Republican governor since 2002.

NY-23 - This was really more a bitch-slap to the Republican Party bosses and a warning to third-party wannabes. Mr. Hoffman entered into the race as a third party because there was no primary. He may have lost to Ms. Scozzafava in a primary, but he did petition the party bosses to be a regular candidate. That he was able to go from unknown to a 3-point loss with 45% of the vote in 30 days is pretty impressive. Add to the fact that he was a little hamstrung by Ms. Scozzafava dropping out and endorsing Mr. Owens (D) and it's something to make conservatives feel a bit better about themselves.

It must also be recognized that the Republican elites fouled up badly by picking a nominee who was far more to the left that what the district wanted. That Ms. Scozzafava went and turned on the Republicans after she dropped out, left the party bosses with even more egg on their faces. It would seem that the anger among the "masses" has finally started to register among those in the Washington cocoon.

Also needed to take a lesson is third-party folks (like Glenn Beck). Love them or hate them, the Democratic and Republican parties have the money and organization to get things done and get name recognition that an outsider just can't. There are also many people who just don't pay attention and will just vote if they see an "R" or a "D" and that is also difficult to overcome. If the conservatives want to regain the power they had in the Reagan days, they must go back in and do it under the umbrella of the party rather than trying to take their ball and go find another game. That will just split the vote and lead to many Democratic victories.

CA-10 - There was never a question that the Democrats were going to win this race. This is a liberal district bordering San Fransisco. However, Democrats might want to worry just a bit about the margins. Mr. Garamendi won 53-43 over Mr. Harmer. However the previous occupant of this seat usually won with 65% or better and Mr. Obama carried the district with better than 60% of the vote. People either didn't care or got complacent. That will happen in special elections where turnout is always lower, but it's another one of those red flags that Democrats might want to watch.

It is difficult to say if these four races reflect on what might or might not happen in 2010. Many things may happen in the coming year to sway the country further to the Right or Left. However, many Democrats do seem to be getting a little nervous about the possibility of a wave like happened in 1994.

The grand question is whether last year was 1976 or not. In 1976, Mr. Carter won over a moderate Gerald Ford who was unpopular due to policies reflecting his predecessor (Mr. Nixon). Mr. Carter went further to the left than the country was prepared for the economy went even further downhill. The result was a major victory for Mr. Reagan in 1980. It is far to early to say that Mr. Obama is Mr. Carter and it would be a great disservice to Mr. Reagan to say that anyone could have stepped up and won over Mr. Carter. Much depends on the person themselves. Still the parallels are interesting to look at and it might give an interesting perspective on the 2012 race, no matter who the Republican nominee is.