Monday, November 24, 2008

BCS Troubles

So we are now firmly entrenched in the madness that is the BCS. A couple of things have been decided, but for the most part, it’s a holy mess. Here is what we know now:

Big 10 – Penn St. has won the conference and been invited to the Rose Bowl. At #8 in the BCS standings, they are in no danger of being offered a chance to play in the title game. They can thank Ohio St. for stinking things up for the Big 10 the last two years. Ohio St. incidentally is #10 in the BCS and will play in the Capital One Bowl.

Big East – Cincinnati has the inside track. Although there are two games left, if they beat Syracuse next week, they win the conference and will be invited to a BCS game (likely the Orange Bowl). If they lose, West Virginia will probably squeak in. Only the conference winner will be invited to a BCS game this year.

ACC – The ACC keeps shifting and I’m not sure who is on top in each division. They have one more regular season game that will probably shake things up even more and then the two winners will play the conference championship on Dec. 6. Like the Big East, only the conference champion will be invited to a BCS bowl game this year (Orange).

SEC – Now things start to get interesting. Alabama and Florida have already won their respective divisions and will play for the overall title on Dec. 6. Assuming both teams win the game they have in-between then, the winner will go to the National Title Game and the loser will probably also be taken as a replacement candidate (probably Sugar Bowl).

Pac 10 – The Pac 10 is weird this year. USC is 9-1 and ranked #5 in the BCS. However, they are not in first place. Oregon St. is 7-3 overall, but 6-1 in conference and USC’s only loss is to Oregon St. Since the conference title is based on your conference record and not your overall record, Oregon St. and USC are tied and Oregon St. has the tiebreaker since they beat USC in the head-to-head match-up. If Oregon St. wins next week, they will win the Pac 10 and be invited to the Rose Bowl to play Penn St. USC will likely get an at-large berth in another BCS bowl, but several things have to go their way to get into the title game.

Big 12 – Missouri has already won the Big 12 North so that part is easy. There is currently a three-way tie between Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma for the lead in the Big 12 South with each team at 10-1. Since they’ve all beaten each other in a round robin fashion, the tiebreaker falls to highest BCS ranking. Texas is #2 while Oklahoma is #3. The real rub though could come in next weeks games. Texas plays Texas A&M and Texas Tech plays Baylor. Neither game should produce an upset. Oklahoma on the other hand, plays Oklahoma St., a team that is also very good and has a history of upsetting Oklahoma even when Oklahoma has been a much better team. If Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St., Texas Tech will win the South by virtue of their win over Texas since they will now be the only teams at 11-1. For Oklahoma to win the South, they would need Texas A&M to somehow upset Texas while winning their game against Oklahoma St. Then we would see who wins the Big 12 Title Game. If Missouri or Texas Tech wins the Big 12 Title game, they would go to the Fiesta Bowl and other scenarios play out for the national title game. But if Oklahoma or Texas wins the Big 12 Title, they will go the title game.

A Missouri or Texas Tech win in the Big 12 represents a headache for the BCS as then either Oklahoma or Texas will probably have sufficient ranking to warrant the #2 slot in the national title game. We would then be faced with the possibility that the National Champion may not be a division winner. The last time this happened Nebraska managed to get the #2 ranking despite not making the Big 12 title game due to their loss to Colorado. They faced off against Oklahoma and Oklahoma destroyed them.

We should also note that Utah has earned a berth in a BCS game by being the highest ranked non-BCS school in the top 12. Utah is ranked #7 while Boise St. is #9 but the BCS is only forced to honor one non-BCS conference team and the highest ranked will get preference.

Despite all the nasty little things that might happen I think things will shake out and the BCS games will be something like as follows: Texas will win the Big12 title and be invited to the national title game. Florida will upset Alabama and also be invited to the national title game. In the final standings, Texas will be #1 and Florida #2 so the Fiesta Bowl will get one pick, followed by the Sugar Bowl. I believe each bowl will pick USC and Oklahoma but I’m not sure who will take what. I’m guessing that the Fiesta will take USC because of proximity, but Oklahoma fans travel well so there is no guarantee.

One those selections are done, the Rose Bowl will take their two teams (Oregon St. and Penn St.). The Fiesta Bowl might take Utah next since the Pac 10 has had trouble with the Mountain teams this year and there is large Utah fan base in that region of the country. The Sugar Bowl would likely take Alabama to face off against Oklahoma and tap into the regional market. The Orange Bowl would then be forced to take Cincinnati and whoever wins the ACC.

Rose: Oregon St. vs. Penn St.
Orange: Cincinnati vs. ACC winner
Sugar: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta: USC vs. Utah
National Title (at the Orange Bowl): Texas vs. Florida

Friday, November 21, 2008

Merit for Thee, Not Me

Mrs. X and I are fans of the show Ugly Betty. Last night’s episode was good but also revealed the strange TV dynamics that writers come up with in their need to resolve the major plotline in 40 minutes.

The central plot was that Betty finds out about this special program for magazine assistants trying to move up in the world. Betty, of course, gets all hyped up believes that the world will end if she doesn’t get into the program this year when the deadline is only 2 days away. We also find out that the program will only take one person from each magazine and she is competing with the other editor-in-chief’s assistant (Mark). Of course the big twist is that her two day effort seems to beat out Mark’s three-month extravaganza but we find out that it is only because she is Latina and they need to fill their quota. Betty feels bad and withdraws her name and Mark gets in. However, at the end, Betty’s boss resubmits her name under a different magazine that she had worked with him on and she gets in to the program.

Now, the part that bothers me a little bit is that Betty goes through this whole martyr’s complex about getting in to the program based almost strictly on her race. Yet in the end, when she gets in on the other magazine title, it doesn’t bother her that she is still in only because she fulfills a quota so long as she doesn’t keep Mark out. It makes the whole point of standing and being judged on your own merits that they beat us over the head with the whole episode totally moot.

A far more realistic attitude would have been Betty having to wait until next year and spending the couple of months necessary to put together the type of presentation that should be expected. But that doesn’t make for a very good happy ending to an episode.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Why is he doing it?

Word on the street is that Bill Clinton is finally opening the books on who donated to his Presidential Library to clear the way for Hillary to be fully vetted for Secretary of State. People keep going round and round as to why Mr. Obama is offering her the job and why she should take it.

I think Ms. Clinton is inclined to take the job because although she seems to be operating well in the Senate, she is stuck in lack of power positions. There is bad blood between the Clinton and Obama camps and the Democrats are not going to create an antagonistic Senate by vaulting her forward into a major leadership position. She can’t even move beyond Chuck Schumer since he is the senior senator from New York. She also can’t run for President in 2016 as she will be nearly 70 years old. The post at Foggy Bottom will provide her with both visibility and power at the moment and nothing about a cabinet position eliminates her from either returning to the Senate in a few years or running for Governor of New York in 2014.

The real question is why Mr. Obama is offering her the post. Mr. Obama is slowly filling both his cabinet and certain staff positions with Clinton veterans and now he is very close to putting them back in the light of one of their old captains. Through this move, Mr. Obama does come dangerously close to allowing his authority to be undermined and give rumors to a shadow presidency being run out of Foggy Bottom.

One possibility is that Mr. Obama is embracing the theory of keeping your enemies even closer than your friends. Another is that Mr. Obama wants the Clinton loyalists to pee out of the tent rather than in it as LBJ used to say. The third possibility (and one that I think is most likely) is that since most of the truly experienced people are Clinton veterans, Mr. Obama has no choice but to include Ms. Clinton just to keep these people in line and not try to undermine him from within before the people he likes get fully up to speed. However, this presumes that Ms. Clinton will follow the whims and dictates of Mr. Obama.

We don’t know how interested she is in playing ball and whether she is interested in being a good soldier or if she is interested in pushing the pieces around the board as the woman behind the curtain. If she accepts, it will make for a very interesting show.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Who Would Suceed?

Mrs. X and I came up with an odd little conundrum last night while talking. Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden will be sworn in as the new President and Vice-President at noon on January 20. This will obviously be a huge event and all the Washington notables will be there. However, what would happen if there was a terrorist attack that resulted in large casualties at the inaguration, including the new President and Vice-President?

The standard order of succession would go first to Speaker of the House (Nancy Pelosi, D-CA) and then to the President pro-tempore of the Senate (Robert Byrd, D-WV). However, I'm sure they would be invited to the capital building and would probably be killed in whatever attack that killed President Obama and Vice-President Biden. Normally, it would then pass to the various cabinet officers. However, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 specifically states that to be eligible to be in the line of succession, officers must have been appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. So any cabinet officers that Mr. Obama would appoint would be ineligable.

Our best guess is that one or two members of the Bush cabinet would not be allowed to resign from their posts until at least one of Mr. Obama's cabinet appointees had been confirmed, setting up his own line of succession. Much like the State of the Union address, the big cabinet officers would probably be attending the inaguration as guests of the outgoing President (Mr. Bush), so it would fall to some lowly secretary who would not be allowed to resign and then not attend the inaguration. After the big four of State, Treasury, Defence and AG, succession would pass to Interior and then Agriculture. So if there was a huge terrorist attack on Inaguration Day, one could look forward to the prospect of President Dirk Kempthorne or President Ed Schafer.

Claymation Christmas

I know I promised no more embeds for a while, but with Christmas coming, I thought about this. This one is for you Madame S:











Sorry, I can't find Angels We Have Heard on High. If I find it, I'll edit this.



Monday, November 17, 2008

Right Lisa; Some Magical Animal...

I enjoy pork ribs but I've never been a fan of BBQ sauce. So I was quite happy with a recipe for ribs that I found online and then tried last night. The meat was savory with a hint of sweetness and it was literally falling off the bones as a I pulled it out of the crock pot. Give it a whirl if you would like a change up to BBBQ (The extra B is for BYOBB).

Why's that "B" there?
That's a typo.

2 cups cranberries (8 oz)
1/3 cup maple syrup
1/3 cup packed brown sugar
1/2 cup water
1 Granny Smith apple - diced (~1 cup)
1 tsp Dijon mustard
1/4 tsp cinnamon
1/4 tsp nutmeg
3-4 lbs pork ribs
1 large onion (sliced)

1) Combine cranberries, syrup, brown sugar, water, and apple in saucepan; bring to a boil
2) Reduce heat to Med-Low and simmer for 5 minutes
3) Stir in mustard, cinnamon, and nutmeg
4) Layer onion at the bottom of the crock pot
5) Place ribs on top of onion then ladle sauce into crock pot to distribute it evenly
6) Cook on low for 7-9 hrs.

Optional - drain juices in crock pot into a sauce pan. Heat to boiling and mix in 1 tbsp cornstarch mixed with 1-2 tbsp of water. Stir until sauce is thickened and serve over top of ribs.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Gordon WITH HAIR

Okay this is the last embed for a while, I promise. But I was playing some Sesame Street clips for Toddler X yesterday and I stumbled across this one. I'm not a huge fan of the I Love Trash song, but it's amusing to see an orange Oscar to say nothing of the volume of hair that Gordon has. Gordon has been bald as long as anyone can remember and seeing him with hair is just weird.



Here's another one from 1969. Toddler X has a Sesame Street CD where this song is sung by Elmo, but it's interesting to see the original. Plus, we can see how far the Big Bird costume has evolved.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

The Wall

Mrs. X likes to make fun of me on occation for my wierd nostalga, but that's okay.

One of Madame S and I's favorite shows to watch growing up was Alvin and the Chipmunks. One episode that stuck in my mind (and didn't get shown very often) was one where the band went to West Berlin and ended up giving a concert over in East Berlin. It was a corny episode, but the song was memorable. I had always assumed that it was a U2 song, but I've never seen it outside of the episode so I must assume that it was an original song.

After the wall came down, the episode wasn't shown much as it seemed very dated. But the song is still good. In a way, it harkens back to the simples of childhood when we had an easily understandable enemy and it was easy to believe that something as simple as a wall coming down could really create lasting peace. Anyway, here's a little bit throw back:

Friday, November 14, 2008

Dancing Jesus

Because what blog written by Mr. X is complete without it?

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

2012 Postulation

Four years ago I postulated that either Mr. McCain or Mr. Giuliani would square off against Ms. Clinton. Mr. Obama threw a wrench into that little scenario but I can still pat myself on the back for getting the soul of the argument right.

Obviously Mr. Obama will be running again in four years and it is likely that he will keep Mr. Biden on the ticket, but what of the Republicans? Many people are pushing Ms. Palin as the front runner and she will certainly be in the mix I imagine. Still, my early gut is leaning towards a Romney/Jindal ticket, especially if Mr. Obama's economic proposals go south.

Friday, November 07, 2008

Biden to Aid Assyrian Rise?

Whatever you feel about Mr. Obama’s politics, probably the most annoying thing that will occur, at least in the first stages of Mr. Obama’s presidency, are the constant accusations that he is the Antichrist. Although he does have ties to European royalty through his mother (and is therefore possibly descended from the Danites), he does not conform to many of the other prerequisites for the Antichrist, several of which I mentioned in my post from August 8, 2008. Mr. Obama IS NOT THE ANTICHRIST! Get over it.

Now, there is a little interesting tidbit in the fact that a person tied to Mr. Obama’s presidency could produce a key characteristic for the Antichrist, Vice President-Elect Joe Biden. I have been reading a great deal about the possibility that Isaiah and Jeremiah were quite literal when they referred to the Antichrist as “the Assyrian.” Assyria ceased to exist as a nation more than 2,500 years ago when Nebuchadnezzar’s father conquered it and added it to Babylonia. However, the Assyrian people have continued with a unique culture that has managed to survive all these long years. Ever since the end of World War I, prominent members of the Assyrian community have been agitating for an independent Assyrian state with Nineveh (Mosul) as its capital.

Now, not long after things began to take a bad turn in Iraq, Senator Joe Biden offered up a plan to divide Iraq into three independent regions: Kurdish, Sunni, and Shia. Obviously, nothing ever came of this plan and Iraq has stabilized greatly since then. However, if the region becomes unstable again, especially in the light of a dramatic war involving Israel, Vice President Biden might be offered as a mediator and he might offer a variation on his divvying up Iraq plan.

If the Nineveh province is split off and given its own government as a homeland for the Assyrian people, it could become the homeland and vehicle that the Antichrist uses to gain power. We should remember that he is referred to as a little horn. This implies that he is the leader or a prominent official in a small nation, making his rise to world leader that much more dramatic. Being elected president or prime minister of a tiny nation risen from the ashes of history would create very humble beginnings for him.

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Three Trials?

I had a very interesting thought earlier today. I have been slowly reading a book called Israelestine (you try getting a lot of reading done with a toddler in the house). In most eschatological circles, there is a general feeling that since Israel has returned to the land, the next major event that would happen is the Battle of Gog and Magog (Ezek. 38-39). This book instead advocates that before the Battle of Gog and Magog can occur, Israel must defeat the grand alliance of nations arrayed against her in Psalm 83. This makes a great deal of sense to me as I have always been very curious at the absence of Syria in the Gog and Magog alliance, which has always led me to speculate that the Burden of Damascus (Isa. 17) has occurred prior to the Gog invasion. If Damascus is destroyed during the war with the Psalm 83 nations, it would clear up a lot of things.

Very little is holding back the Psalm 83 alliance at the moment. The only participants listed who are not chomping at the bit to destroy Israel at the moment are Egypt and Jordan, and I believe that they would enter in a heartbeat if thought they could destroy Israel in a single stroke. I have been idly wondering if the grand test that Mr. Biden alluded to last month, might be a major assault on Israel by these powers through a promise of support by Iran. If it is and it does escalate into the grand war with the Psalm 83 powers and Israel feels that they have no friends in the world, they might feel it is in their better interests to openly destroy her enemies rather than kick the can down the road as they did in the 2006 Lebanon War.

Once her enemies were destroyed, Israel would probably consolidate all the conquered territory, much to the rage of the rest of the world. But since none of them would probably raise a finger to help Israel during the war, I doubt Israel would feel overly inclined to respect the wishes of the world. It will take time to consolidate and settle the land they have taken. There would probably be a large migration of Jews to the new Israel as land will be freely available and the public relations outcome of the war would probably cause a nasty spike in anti-Semitism. With this new population and resources, Israel would probably become very wealthy and powerful. The rest of the nations would eventually be forced to trade and make peace with her just to share in the wealth.

I believe the next three Sabbatical Cycles observed by Israel will be of great importance, due to their following the 40-year period of testing running from 1967 to 2007. This first Sabbatical cycle began September 30, 2008 and will run until September 13, 2015. My thought is that this great Psalm 83 War will occur during this space of time (I think more towards the beginning of it). The next Sabbatical Cycle runs from September 14, 2015 to September 25, 2022. It is quite possible that the Gog and Magog War will not occur until this second cycle, giving Israel time to possess and develop their new found wealth as well as to start letting their guard down before being swooped down on by the Russians, Iranians, etc.

If these two possibilities come to pass, it sets up a very interesting suggestion of what might occur during the third Sabbatical Cycle, which runs from September 26, 2022 to September 9, 2029. After all, things do seem to come in threes.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

The Aftermath


Well, to say that I was wrong would be an understatement. I honestly expected the people to be a bit more tentative about Mr. Obama and his lack of detail. But if the people are upset enough any change is good, even if it is vague change. Interesting to note that even the the most pessimistic analysts on the right-wing sites underestimated Mr. Obama's victory so I can take some solace in that.

What does it mean going forward? Hard to say. I fully take Mr. Biden at his word that there will be a major assault on this nation or its allies in 2009. Mr. Clinton had the WTC bombing in 1993 and Mr. Bush had 9/11 in their first years. What his response will be will be interesting. Although I think Al Qaeda would like to be the major perpetrators of this attack, I lean more towards an Iranian sponsored attack on Israel to feel out Mr. Obama rather than a direct assault as we saw for the last two Presidents.

We don't know how things will go in type of attack based on both Mr. Obama's lack of experience and the great unknown that is the Israeli leadership. I will say that even if Israel stands alone with the most incompetent boobs you can imagine leading her, I firmly believe that she will survive against all odds. It is us who have abandoned her that will reap sorrow. I don't mean to be melodramatic, but I am a very strong believer in the promises God has made to His people and while Mr. Obama might turn into the greatest friend Israel has ever had, I have yet to see any evidence of that fact. Here's hoping that I'm as wrong about this as I was about the results of the election.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Our Long National Nightmare is Over

…or is just beginning depending on your point of view and how many lawsuits get filed tomorrow. My intention is to maintain a little journal (most of which will be on paper and then uploaded later) of today’s events just for fun recording purposes. I don’t expect things to be settled until after midnight so there will be lots of updates I imagine.

9:00 AM – Mrs. X arrives at polls and discovers a really long line at our polling place. I have already voted absentee.

9:25 AM - I was just thinking that if Mr. Obama loses, the PUMAs are going to come out with the long knives and slaughter the Obama supporters wholesale. There will be a political bloodbath the likes we haven't seen in more than 30 years.

9:40 AM - Mrs. X finishes voting. Despite getting a "I Voted" sticker, Toddler X did not vote.

12:20 PM - Early voting reports indicate voting problems in scattered locations in Philadelphia as well as other parts of the country. Also reports of lower than expected turnout so far in Manhattan, although other locations around the country are exceeding turnout expectations. Mr. McCain has also filed a lawsuit in VA requesting a 10-day extention for arrival times of military ballots. It seems the Pentagon sent them out late (typical military efficiency) and they are coming back behind the filing deadline. No word on any ruling.

12:50 PM - Mrs. X found a better one that had pretty pictures last night, but here's a quick and dirty schedule of poll closing times and EV totals.

1:55 PM - I have no objection to this.

3:30 PM - I have seen a couple of conservative commentators suggest that the MSM will call one or two states early for Mr. Obama and then be forced to reverse themselves when the actual vote totals come in. I disagree. The last two elections have been illuminating on how to get made a fool of and I think the MSM has no wish to repeat that mistake. Plus, if the MSM truly believes that Mr. Obama will win in a landslide, it is in their best interest to keep the process as drawn out as possible to drive up ratings. If a state has been ruled a toss-up or even a leaner, I fully expect all news networks to wait as long as humanly possible to make the call.

I switched to paper here so this is a transcript of what I wrote at the time:
6:00 PM - First closings in KY and IN. No declarations will be made until at least 7.

6:07 PM - CNN is showing a happy Obama and a fighting McCain. I imagine this suits the narrative they want to portray.

6:21 PM - 60-38 McCain with 0% in KY

6:29 PM - 55-44 Obama with 1% in IN

6:42 PM - According to CNN's exit polling data, all those who identified themselves primarily as white evangelicals favored McCain in all 50 states.

7:00 PM - All networks call KY for McCain and VT for Obama. No surprises there.

7:05 PM - Warner (D) declared winner in VA's Senate race. CNN calls IN governor's race for Daniels (R).

7:19 PM - FL votes coming in. All polls won't close until 8.

7:30 PM - Polls close in OH and WV. No calls.

7:37 PM - Fox calls WV for McCain.

7:47 PM - Bath time for Toddler X to be followed by bed.

8:07 PM - Returned from bath while Mrs. X puts Toddler X to bed. OK, SC, TN called for McCain. NJ, IL, DC, MD, DE, MA, CT, and ME called for Obama. No real surprises, although CNN is not giving Obama all 4 of Maine's votes, just the first 3.

8:21 PM - Fox calls NH for Obama. That's earlier that I anticipated. Not a good sign.

8:26 PM - Sununu (R) defeated in NH. Collins (R) wins in ME.

8:28 PM - CNN calls NH for Obama.

8:31 PM - Kerry (D) wins reelection. Fox projects PA for Obama. Very bad sign for McCain.

8:39 PM - CNN projects PA for Obama. Must be some damning evidence beyond the exit polls.

8:45 PM - Fox calls GA for McCain.

8:55 PM - Fox calls AR for McCain.

8:58 PM - CNN calls AL for McCain.

9:00 PM - Obama wins RI, MN, MI, WI, NY. McCain wins WY and ND.

9:20 PM - McConnell (R) wins KY senate race.

9:22 PM - Fox projects NM and Ohio to Obama. That's the death knell if it stands.

9:24 PM - CBS calls LA for McCain.

9:36 PM - KS called for McCain.

9:55 PM - TX called for McCain.

10:00 PM - Switching over to Comedy Central to watch Daily Show Election Special. IA to Obama, UT to McCain.

10:17 PM - MS to McCain.

10:52 PM - Fox calls VA for Obama. First time since 1964 its gone Democrat.

11:00 PM - CA, OR, WA, HI called for Obama. All networks declare Obama President-Elect.

11:18 PM - McCain concedes. I'll be curious to check Israeli reaction tomorrow.

11:23 PM - FL and CO called for Obama.

11:30 PM - I can't help but think about a sermon I heard once how Psalm 107 began the Deuteronomy section of the Psalms, which also coincides with the end of Israel's last 40 year test. If even half of the accusations that Republicans threw at Mr. Obama are true, Israel will be standing on her own and we will suffer for it (Gen. 12:3). I shall be very curious to see what Israel does in the next two months and especially if Bibi is elected.

11:33 PM - NV called for Obama.

11:34 PM - Only IN, NC, MO, MT, AK not called.

11:36 PM - Off to bed; much earlier than I expected.

Nov 5, 7:00 AM - AK, MT called for McCain. IN called for Obama. NC not called but looks Obama. MO not called but looks McCain. Coleman (R) ahead in MN senate race by 2,000 votes. Recount to be conducted.

Monday, November 03, 2008

Prediction Time

At long last the moment has come. It appears that the media is predicting an Obama win. It is certainly possible, but I am inclined to believe that it will be much closer than what is currently predicted. The way I see it, there are a few states that have the potential to flip to one side or the other from their 2004 positions. I will say up front that if any state outside of the ones that I’ve listed and discussed flip, it is going to be a very bad night for the other person.

Kerry states: Maine, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania
Bush states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

Maine: I really don’t expect Maine to flip, but I felt it was necessary to include it because of what could happen in the second district. As the more conservative of the two (and smaller) there is at least a chance that it could have 1 EV peeled off for Mr. McCain, even if Mr. Obama wins the overall state. Given the logical way that I’ve outlined a tie could occur, this vote could be very important.

New Hampshire: Of all the Kerry states, I think this the one most likely to flip. Mr. McCain has made a second home for himself in this state and it has always been the most conservative of the New England states (meaning that it’s perfect for Mr. McCain’s brand of conservatism). The only real unknown is how strongly the Massachusetts exiles that populate the southern border will turn out for Mr. Obama. It was these people in particular that drove the state to Mr. Kerry. Without a Massachusetts man in the race, these folks might be a little less enthusiastic.

Pennsylvania: This is a state that should not be in play. However, the more conservative Democrats of western Pennsylvania have never quite gotten over the “bitter clingers” comments that were made over the summer. Even worse for Mr. Obama, over the weekend the transcript of an interview he gave in 2007 was released where he noted that he favors using price controls and other means to prevent the construction of new coal plants (clean or otherwise) in the US. Given that western Pennsylvania’s economy is heavily dependent on coal mining, this attitude could result in the loss of thousands of mining and processing jobs. A switch of about 75,000 votes of people who voted for Mr. Kerry would turn the state red for the first time in twenty years.

Florida: This state has always showed it to be close, but it is unlikely that it will flip. The African-American population is lower in Florida than in the rest of the South and has turned out very heavily for Democrats in the past. The Cuban population is apparently very galvanized against Mr. Obama out of fear that he will impose Socialism-lite and they fled to the US to escape that. In addition, there is a very large military absentee vote that will heavily favor Mr. McCain (estimates are that Mr. McCain wins the military vote nearly 3-1).

North Carolina: NC normally would not be so close, but during the bailout period, there were shortages of gas and other supplies which drove voter anger up significantly. Mr. Obama is doing well in the Research Triangle and in several swing counties. However, Mr. McCain is still showing well due to high rural support. I think North Carolina will stay in the red column mostly due to absentee military support again. Quite a few military personnel are stationed out of Ft. Bragg and will probably break the tie between the rural and city voters.

Virginia: Mr. Obama has been polling well in this state. Like North Carolina, Virginia will have a large absentee military vote (Navy) that will heavily favor Mr. McCain. Unlike North Carolina though, Mr. Obama has been polling ahead by 5-7 points, rather than the 2-3 seen south. Rural turnout will be high and most of it will counterbalance the heavy blue regions of northern Virginia. My gut says that Virginia will stay red, but I think it will be very close and I would not be shocked to see a statewide recount ordered on Wednesday.

Ohio: Mr. Obama has made a big push in Ohio, but it is unlikely that he will swing the state. If Mr. Obama has problems with the western Pennsylvania voters, he has had equal or greater problems with that same style of voters who populate southeastern Ohio. Democratic wins in Ohio depend on capturing this region to break the tie between the three big cities and the rural voters. If Mr. Obama is not holding these regions, he will not win the state.

Indiana: Chicago dominates the northwestern Indiana media market and will probably pull the union voters to Mr. Obama. Also, Indiana has a large portion of the state devoted to ethanol production and those farmers may not be highly inclined towards Mr. McCain. However at its heart, Indiana is a red state. Mr. Bush won Indiana by better than 20 points and although Mr. Obama will capture quite a few of the margin, I think it is unlikely that he can make up the whole distance in one cycle.

Iowa: This is the first state on either side that is all but guaranteed to switch sides. Mr. Obama did well here during the caucuses and Mr. McCain’s opposition to ethanol will play havoc with farmers in this state. Iowans are very comfortable with Democrats and I see no reason that they won’t stand with Mr. Obama in this election.

Missouri: Missouri is returning to its bellwether status after trending hard right in the last campaign. Mr. Obama will obviously dominate St. Louis and Kansas City while Mr. McCain takes the rural portions of the state. That leaves the outer suburbs to decide the state, much as in elections past. Missouri has been swinging back and forth in the polls that I have watched, but it looks like it is still tilting red slightly. If Mr. Obama wins this election, I believe that he will win Missouri. As of yet, I see no reason to stop believing in the adage, “So goes Missouri, so goes the nation.”

Colorado: Colorado is hard to gauge. It is like Virginia in that it is mostly conservative rural, but it has had a large influx of liberals to major cities. It also has an absentee military population (Air Force), but a much smaller amount than in the three states mentioned previously. Much will probably depend on how the Hispanic turnout is. If it’s high, it is likely the state will go for Mr. Obama. If it is low, the rural and military vote should probably overwhelm the city vote and it stays red. Unlike some of the other states, I haven’t been able to get any real on-the-ground info here and can only go with my gut instincts.

New Mexico: Like Iowa, this state will almost assuredly flip back from red to blue. It has been close, but Gov. Richardson has been working hard for Mr. Obama and it only takes a thousand or so votes to flip the state.

Nevada: Nevada has always been close, especially with the growing unions in Las Vegas. However, Nevada as a whole is very liaise-fair and generally opposed to the type of big government strategies offered by Democrats. Mr. Obama will probably make it close with the anti-Yucca Mountain crowd, but I think even some of the unions will oppose him due to the card check issue.

On a whole, I have been anticipating this election coming down to how Colorado turns. It still might, but there are a few whispers in some states that I hadn’t really considered, such as Virginia and Pennsylvania. I do believe that if Mr. McCain makes his case and Pennsylvania flips from red to blue, the race is over and Mr. McCain will have won. Likewise, if Ohio goes blue, the race is over and Mr. Obama will have won.

I think the key early state to watch will be New Hampshire. Officially, New Hampshire’s polls close at 7, but they are allowed to stay open another hour in the 13 major towns. Effectively this means that the news networks won’t even dream of a call until 8 pm. If New Hampshire is called early for Mr. Obama or Mr. McCain, I think the other will have a bad night. If it takes awhile, the race will be close and the late winner will have a leg up for the remainder of the night.

I would also say that although Ohio polls close at 7:30, there will be at least one judge imposed extension so who knows how late things will go here.

I would also offer the opinion that exit polls will break hard for Mr. Obama but that they will be off like they were four years ago. I don’t know how far off, but off.