Monday, March 24, 2008

The Fallout

By now, much has been said both pro and con regarding Mr. Obama and his connections to Rev. Wright. Many on the intellectual Left have praised Mr. Obama’s speech while many on the Right have criticized it as Mr. Obama has tried to refute the nastiness of Rev. Wright’s words while keeping connections with the man himself. Meanwhile, it is still unclear as to how badly this hurts Mr. Obama’s chances of securing the Democratic nomination and winning against Mr. McCain in November.

At the moment, there is a great deal of anger in the white, blue-collar community (and in some ethnic communities) over Mr. Obama’s refusal to fully denounce Rev. Wright. What some are starting to realize is that Mr. Obama can’t fully denounce Rev. Wright because it would conflict with his overall theological beliefs. Mr. Obama may not care for the vitriolic hatred through which Rev. Wright spreads his message (although a 19-year membership in this church does seem to even call this into question), but ultimately Mr. Obama is a believer in the Black Liberation Theology to which Rev. Wright ascribes and preaches. Ultimately, it is about struggle, the restitution of past wrongs and an interpretation of the Gospel that fits with this socially conscious method. Unfortunately, it is easily given over to victimhood, which can in turn lead to anger, as given in the person of Rev. Wright.

What will probably not go away in the minds of many Democratic and Independent voters is this transformation of Mr. Obama from a candidate who happens to be African-American, to the African-American candidate, potentially hitting all the necessary buttons and baggage that Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton hit.

It may be that it is too late for this to affect the Democratic race. Ms. Clinton is most likely going to win Pennsylvania and by large margins. That the numbers have increased in the wake of the Rev. Wright controversy is lost in the fact that they were already pretty high to begin with. If Mr. Obama goes on to win North Carolina and Oregon as people thing he will, and if he makes Indiana close (maybe even winning it) then he will be the nominee. However, if North Carolina goes to the wire and Ms. Clinton is able to pull it out, only then will the Superdelegates start to reevaluate their position. Any retention of the status quo with Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama getting wins on their “turf” will only benefit Mr. Obama as the party elders will be too reluctant to overturn the perceived will of the people.

Then it would come down to the question of if Democratic anger over the policies of Bush can keep Mr. Obama afloat or whether his flaws ultimately sink him in the face of the Republican onslaught.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Democratic Calendar of Events

Mr. Obama won Mississippi as expected last night. He will gain at least 17 delegates to Ms. Clinton’s 11. There are 5 more delegates who will be allotted once all the votes are fully counted and documented in each congressional district. In absolute hard pledges, Mr. Obama leads 1274-1166 with 5 outstanding. Factoring in the estimated allotments in caucuses, Mr. Obama increases his lead to 1388.5-1240.5 with 32 outstanding and 26 still pledged to Mr. Edwards. Ms. Clinton still holds a lead of about 30 Superdelegates, leaving her roughly 110 total delegates behind.

Now we are in for the long slog where we wait for Pennsylvania. The media will probably spend most of this time going over the deliberations over what to do with the Florida and Michigan votes. At the moment, it seems that Florida’s plan to revote by mail is moving forward, despite dissent from the House Florida delegation and the large holes for lawsuits that could be opened up. There is no word yet if Michigan is going to follow the same parameters.

To give and idea of the upcoming calendar, here are the remaining important dates:

April 12 – Democrats Abroad will formally select their delegates. Mr. Obama is expected to receive 4.5 and Ms. Clinton 2.5 (There are 14 delegates with a half vote each).

April 22 – Pennsylvania Primary – 158 delegates

April 26 – Iowa District Conventions – Mr. Obama is expected to receive 10 delegates, Ms. Clinton 10, and Mr. Edwards 9. It is unknown if Mr. Edwards will keep his delegates or release them to the other candidates.

May 3 – Guam Caucus – 6 delegates (0.5 votes each for 3 votes)

May 6 – North Carolina and Indiana Primaries – 115 and 72 delegates

May 13 – West Virginia Primary – 28 delegates

May 17 – Colorado State Convention – Mr. Obama is expected to receive 19 delegates and Ms. Clinton 9. There are an additional 27 delegates that will be assigned to candidates at the convention.

May 18 – Nevada State Convention – Mr. Obama is expected to receive 13 delegates and Ms. Clinton 12.

May 20 – Kentucky and Oregon Primaries – 51 and 52 delegates

May 24 – Alaska State Convention – Mr. Obama is expected to receive 9 delegates and Ms. Clinton 4.

June 1 – Puerto Rico Primary – Puerto Rico has petitioned to move up one week to June 1 and switch from a caucus to a primary as part of the Florida and Michigan negotiations. Puerto Rico has 55 delegates.

June 3 – Montana and South Dakota Primaries – 16 and 15 delegates

June 7 – Texas State Convention – Mr. Obama is expected to receive 38 delegates and Ms. Clinton 29.

June 14 – Idaho and Iowa State Conventions – Mr. Obama is expected to receive 15 delegates and Ms. Clinton 3 from Idaho. Mr. Obama is expected to receive 6 delegates, Ms. Clinton 5, and Mr. Edwards 5 from Iowa. It is unknown if Mr. Edwards will keep his delegates or release them to the other candidates.

Any makeup primaries in Florida and Michigan will likely take place after June 3 but prior to July 1.

Monday, March 10, 2008

The Likely Bitter Pill

Much ink and drama are going to be played out over the next few months, but the end result is probably going to be pretty predictable barring a major mistake by one candidate or the other. At the end of the day, neither Mr. Obama nor Ms. Clinton is going to have enough pledged delegates to win the nomination and it will become a beauty contest between the Superdelegates.

Ms. Clinton has been talking up how she wins big states while Mr. Obama talks about bringing in new voters and can make traditional red states competitive. Both of these are fallacies. In a primary, there are no red and blue states. There are only Democratic contests and your appeal is determined how well you organize and what constituencies you appeal to. Ms. Clinton wins big states because she appeals to the traditional blue collar, union Democrats who make up the majority of the voting blocs in those states. Meanwhile, Mr. Obama is winning African-Americans, young voters, and liberal intellectuals. This gives him power in states where the traditional Democrats have been weeded out. The Democrats may win states like Ohio and West Virginia, but who takes those now will have no bearing on the final outcome against Mr. McCain.

The biggest worry for Democratic operatives when one looks at this analysis is what happens once the folks in the backroom pick one candidate over the other. If Ms. Clinton is selected, she’ll maintain her blocs and will pick up the intellectual liberals. However young voters may evaporate, as their motivation is lost. Likewise, African-American voters may be angry enough to either stay home or give Mr. McCain a look. If Mr. Obama is selected, he’ll maintain his voting blocs, but he may lose some of the working class Democrats. These are the “Reagan Democrats” who pay close attention to National Security and may be turned off by Mr. Obama’s aggressive spending plans that could result in higher taxes.

On top of all this is how the landscape looks once the primary season is over. Knowing that Mr. Obama will almost certainly finish in the lead with pledged delegates, many Democrats would probably prefer him to also finish with the popular vote lead and more states in his column (Mr. Obama currently leads 25 states + DC to 16 states for Ms. Clinton, so he will have won more contests at the end of the day). However, 57% Democratic voters have openly stated that if no one wins the nomination due to pledged delegates then the winner of the popular vote should be the nominee. This is the one avenue still open for Ms. Clinton as she trails Mr. Obama by about 600,000 votes not including Michigan and Florida. If these states get seated or she wins in somewhat similar numbers in the do-overs, Ms. Clinton could take the popular vote lead from Mr. Obama. Then the party elders are back where they started and will have to torque off one constituency or the other.

The choice might come down to which side is more willing to forgive the other or which side is the one that Democrats decide they can sacrifice for the common good. Neither choice is particularly appetizing.

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

The Road to Denver Will Be Paved with Blood

Now things are interesting again. I had correctly speculated that Ms. Clinton would win Rhode Island and Ohio while Mr. Obama would win Vermont. I went back and forth on Texas (as did Texas itself) but the trend of the Monday polls suggested to me that she could squeak out a one or two-point win. I was actually thinking that the early votes would put her over the top, but apparently Mr. Obama won the early votes by nearly 150,000. Instead she vaulted up on her own, although her numbers were inflated a small bit by Republican crossover. Mr. Obama won crossover Republicans as well, but his numbers would have been higher among this segment if there hadn’t been an active push in some circles to keep Ms. Clinton in the race.

Anyway, where do we go from here? Well, as I postulated earlier, the combined wins in Ohio and Texas easily keep her in until Pennsylvania and probably through Puerto Rico in June. A statistic that keeps getting flashed by the Clinton people is that if you include the voter turnout in Michigan and Florida, she and Mr. Obama are now tied for popular votes, with several large states that may go to Ms. Clinton in the future. What’s more, both Florida and Michigan are talking openly of holding their primaries again in June or July. Ms. Clinton should naturally do well in both states (and her championing of them over the past three months will only have helped her standing there) and substituting substantial wins in those states for the pseudo-wins she has will only make her stronger.

Mr. Obama will trumpet his delegate lead, which will remain essentially unchanged (not including the Texas caucus, Ms. Clinton had a net pick up of 15 delegates). However, Mr. Obama now has to win over 75% of the Democratic electorate to get the 2025 delegates he needs to win prior to the convention. This is not going to happen. Since both candidates will not have the majority, the race will be decided by the Superdelegates and the idea of being “in the lead” comes down to momentum and appeal rather than hard math. Mr. Obama will pick up some momentum again assuming he wins Wyoming and Mississippi next week, but she could blunt that with a solid win in Pennsylvania.

Ironically, one thing happened last night that may prove a strong argument for Ms. Clinton. She has argued that Mr. Obama’s success in caucuses do not accurately reflect the electorate. We may get a microcosm of this argument in Texas. Ms. Clinton won the state primary by 3 points, but Mr. Obama may end up winning the Texas caucus by 7 points or better. Obviously, the two results are not harmonious and allows Ms. Clinton to state that if all the electorate were involved, she would have beaten Mr. Obama in important swing states like Iowa and Colorado. This may not necessarily be true, but she can make a good argument at least.

Ms. Clinton will probably ignore Wyoming, although she might send Bill down to try to pump up turnout a little in Mississippi so she doesn’t get completely blown out (highest African-American population in any state by percentage). But she will focus on Pennsylvania, especially to try and blunt a potential big victory for Mr. Obama in North Carolina in early May. If she wins Pennsylvania by any decent margin, she will have a good shot to take West Virginia, Kentucky and Indiana, while also making a push for Oregon. Wins in these states will build a strong case for her to present to the Superdelegates that she is the one to beat.

Mr. Obama on the other hand is going to have to learn how to hit back in a proper manner. His style has been more deflection than counterpunch at the moment. The longer he allows Ms. Clinton to hang around and bleed him with paper cuts, the potentially weaker he gets. A win in Pennsylvania would be ideal, but the demographics of the state currently favor Ms. Clinton. He must stay close there and then pound her with a big win in North Carolina. If he could tie that win a win in Indiana, he would be in good shape to take Oregon and maybe even Kentucky (I don’t think he has a realistic shot at West Virginia).

I find it rather amusing that with the mad scramble of states to become the first in the nation and keep pushing up their primaries, it could the one-two punch of Kentucky and Oregon on May 20th that determine who has the momentum heading into the convention.

FYI, for those keeping track, Ms. Clinton now leads 6-4 in the 12 swing states of 2004 with Pennsylvania and Oregon remaining.

Monday, March 03, 2008

Last Best Chance?

Is this really Mr. Obama’s third and last best chance to deliver a crushing blow to Ms. Clinton? It has been argued that Mr. Obama has had two previous chances to knock her out: New Hampshire and Super Tuesday. I don’t believe that Ms. Clinton would have withdrawn has she lost New Hampshire, but it might have set in motion the loss in the first four primaries that I discussed earlier, which might have forced her to consider withdrawing if the momentum made it look like she could lose New York. Of course, she came back and won New Hampshire.

Super Tuesday also probably wouldn’t have forced Ms. Clinton to withdraw but had Obama won California or New Jersey (even making them very close), he could have undercut her at her base and argued that he was well established in Democratic circles. That might have been enough to ensure a comfortable win in Ohio that would have clearly forced her to withdraw.

So now we’re on Mr. Obama’s supposed third opportunity to force Ms. Clinton out. Despite the Media and the Party talking about it, if Ms. Clinton wins Ohio, she will stick it out until at least Pennsylvania. It is really only a statement by Bill Clinton that has put this notion out there that she should withdraw if she loses both primaries. Obama might win Texas, but if the vote is close and she wins decent majorities in Hispanics and Women (which she is polling well in), she will argue that Texas is still a Red State and that she is the stronger person in the core constituencies of the Democratic Party. Ohio, being one of the strongest Purple States, probably matters more in terms of prestige than Texas does, despite Texas having more delegates.

If Ms. Clinton loses Ohio, she probably won’t be able to recover and will be hard pressed to make the argument that she represents the soul of the Democratic Party. A win in Ohio but not Texas will amplify the calls for her to withdraw, but I think there will be some creative spin and a wait-until-Pennsylvania attitude to decide things. If she wins both Texas and Ohio, she will probably stick it out until the Puerto Rico primaries.

Two things that have operated below the public radar are the simple fact that although Mr. Obama raised more money, Ms. Clinton did bring in $35 million. That is a lot of money and there is a large portion of the Democratic base behind her. Also, there are whispers that a large segment of the Jewish population is growing increasingly wary of Mr. Obama and his rather weak refutations of the anti-Semitic stances of some of his supporters.

If there is any significant defection of the Jewish population to Mr. McCain (Kerry won Jews 75-25), that could take certain states out of play and put other states in the maybe column. Certainly Florida would be lost to Mr. McCain and it would hurt Mr. Obama’s chances of swinging Ohio and Virginia into the Democratic column. It could also make things very uncomfortable for Mr. Obama in Connecticut and New Jersey (states that he should win by significant margins). It might even sap away the Democratic advantage in Pennsylvania and that would be disastrous for Mr. Obama.

Either way, there are too many loose strings at the moment. It does not seem that Mr. Obama will be quite able to deliver the killing blow to Ms. Clinton’s campaign, though he may deal a blow that she won’t get up from. Expect more spin and talks of seeing how Pennsylvania falls while Mr. Dean starts pulling his hair out.