Preparing the Hooks

Sorry about the long layoff. Things have been busy at work and it’s been hard to think of things to write about while giving them my own twist. Recapping the woes of the Bengals and offering predictions about the World Series don’t give a lot of source material. Although, a Cleveland-Denver World Series would provide a couple of interesting talking points.

But, what finally drew me out of my malaise is the mutual defense pact signed by Russia, Iran, and the various –stans around the Caspian Sea. Russia has even upped the ante by pledging significant assistance to aiding Iran complete their nuclear reactor. President Bush has apparently gone so far as to say that if Iran goes nuclear, global war would occur (presumably he is referring to Iran’s planned strike against Israel).

On top of this, Turkey is seething about both Congress’ proposed condemnation of the Armenian Massacre and Iraq’s failure to stop Kurdish terrorists from crossing the border. Given that Iran also hates the Kurds, Europe is telling them to get lost, and Russia is planning major energy developments (including a huge oil and gas pipeline) in the area, its really only a matter of time before Turkey joins in with this Russo-Persian alliance. Turkey having also just swept Islamist parties into office should make the alliance with Iran that much more palatable.

Meanwhile, Iran is supporting Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Palestinian factions within Israel. They have pacts of mutual understanding with the Islamic government of Sudan and there have been rumors of a reach out to Libya as well, with a promise to restore the nuclear program Libya gave up to a US bluff.

All of this equates to a very nasty situation brewing. At the moment, the alliances are still forming and I also believe that this grand alliance would prefer to attack economically first (Russia and Iran’s ties with China make that possibility much more formidable). However, while the US might sit with their head in the sand, the Israeli military does not appear to willing to take that chance. Despite Olmert’s boobery, the military as well as the conservative parties (even members of Labor as well) are forming plans for a significant strike against Iran. The destruction of the Syrian nuclear installation was most likely a dry run against Iran as well as an actual hit against Syria. In the end, Israel might do what the US is unwilling to and that is try to cripple the Iranian threat. But if it does, that would activate the Russo-Persian alliance and could bring the full wrath of Gog against them. I’m not sure the US has the political will to stand up for Israel in the face of such a retaliation, especially if we are still stretched thin across Iraq and Afghanistan.

Unfortunately, we are not dealing with fully rational people here so I do not see any way to avoid a major conflict within Israel sometime in the next couple of years. I’ve read on several boards that Putin doesn’t have the stomach to pull the trigger. I disagree. I think the threat is very real and very dangerous.